2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Can Sanders Win the Nomination? Only in a Parallel Universe [View all]Red Oak
(699 posts)Indeed things HAVE changed.
You are not discussing in your article all the other previous articles that were written on how Bernie would only win Vermont, how Bernie wouldn't get close in Iowa, how he would never win Oklahoma, no way would he blow Clinton away like he did in Washington, nor would Clinton lose to Bernie in Michigan, etc. etc. The goalposts from the Clinton camp are changing daily, as the results come in. Currently it is the math, the delegate math and that will be the social media meme until that math no longer works.
It must feel to a Clinton acolyte like a football game in the third quarter with the Clinton team ahead by a overwhelming amount, but the other team is scoring again and again. The game feels like it may come down to, and be lost, in the final few seconds. We've all seen those type games. One can argue math all one wants, but the reality is sometimes the underdog wins in an upset.
Will Clinton win? Will Bernie win?
The true fact of the matter is that neither you nor I know or can know. You are presenting reasoned probabilities. In the end they are probabilities. Did you have a Hillary loss in Wisconsin baked into the first draft of your article. My guess is yes, and then you had to edit that out. Things have changed, rapidly.
I know that I would like to see this played out to the convention. Bernie and Hillary represent two very opposed views within the political spectrum. They should battle it out. It is good for the Democratic party and it is good for America. I also know that Bernie is doing much, much better than those that would have coronated Clinton ever thought possible in their wildest dreams.
You may be able to gloat over a win in June or you may be wondering how your math could have failed you. Probabilities are often like that, when teams come from behind and win, overcoming the odds.