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Red Oak

(699 posts)
39. Well, I believe that things can change.
Sat Apr 2, 2016, 10:42 PM
Apr 2016

Indeed things HAVE changed.

You are not discussing in your article all the other previous articles that were written on how Bernie would only win Vermont, how Bernie wouldn't get close in Iowa, how he would never win Oklahoma, no way would he blow Clinton away like he did in Washington, nor would Clinton lose to Bernie in Michigan, etc. etc. The goalposts from the Clinton camp are changing daily, as the results come in. Currently it is the math, the delegate math and that will be the social media meme until that math no longer works.

It must feel to a Clinton acolyte like a football game in the third quarter with the Clinton team ahead by a overwhelming amount, but the other team is scoring again and again. The game feels like it may come down to, and be lost, in the final few seconds. We've all seen those type games. One can argue math all one wants, but the reality is sometimes the underdog wins in an upset.

Will Clinton win? Will Bernie win?

The true fact of the matter is that neither you nor I know or can know. You are presenting reasoned probabilities. In the end they are probabilities. Did you have a Hillary loss in Wisconsin baked into the first draft of your article. My guess is yes, and then you had to edit that out. Things have changed, rapidly.

I know that I would like to see this played out to the convention. Bernie and Hillary represent two very opposed views within the political spectrum. They should battle it out. It is good for the Democratic party and it is good for America. I also know that Bernie is doing much, much better than those that would have coronated Clinton ever thought possible in their wildest dreams.

You may be able to gloat over a win in June or you may be wondering how your math could have failed you. Probabilities are often like that, when teams come from behind and win, overcoming the odds.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Welcome to Bizarro World. dchill Apr 2016 #1
Then we're IN a parallel universe. He's going to be your next President. Merryland Apr 2016 #2
You evidiently haven't read the article CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #5
I read the article you wrote Red Oak Apr 2016 #30
You read the article CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #31
Well, I believe that things can change. Red Oak Apr 2016 #39
I believe in probablities CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #40
Your statistical analysis is overly simplistic. Red Oak Apr 2016 #42
I kept it very simple - I always try to communicate at laymen's level CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #43
A parallel universe or a time machine to 2008... dubyadiprecession Apr 2016 #3
Even Hillary didn't face the same obstacles that Bernie faces at this point in the race CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #12
Just in case you make the dimensional jump to meet Kirk Prime and Spock Prime, pack accordingly! TheBlackAdder Apr 2016 #45
It's not over ibegurpard Apr 2016 #4
The fat lady is warming up....; CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #6
she'll probably be singing ibegurpard Apr 2016 #8
Then read the article and tell me why I'm wrong CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #13
you're wrong ibegurpard Apr 2016 #18
Then tell me how Bernie can possibly win CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #24
Wow how rude. Gwhittey Apr 2016 #9
NO POINT Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #38
If you really believe that, why bother posting this? tabasco Apr 2016 #7
No one is trying to convince anyone of anything CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #10
She is ahead by 228 delegates by your own reckoning. You might want to edit it. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #11
Dang, though I had fixed that - Thanks CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #14
I am comfortable in saying she is a 1-10 favorite. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #16
True - something dramatic might happen still happen CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #19
Die Hard. jmg257 Apr 2016 #33
This is what you do to promote something you wrote YOURSELF? MrMickeysMom Apr 2016 #15
No! CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #20
Yep, blog flogging used to be against the rules and 5 hides used to get you a timeout. beam me up scottie Apr 2016 #35
You can tell by how often Hillary Supporter has to remind us of that. frylock Apr 2016 #17
So you agree? CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #21
jeesus fking krist frylock Apr 2016 #25
We aren't just about winning. We are planting seeds and teaching. snowy owl Apr 2016 #22
Sanders is 74 - who is his natural socialist successor who will carry his flag? CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #26
That is why we are focused on marching forward but I agree few. Ellison? Feingold? An unknown? snowy owl Apr 2016 #27
We'll see, but..... CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #28
blind link to your blog but, not an opinion, right. Welcome to ignore. Hiraeth Apr 2016 #23
Obviously, you can't think of anything to refute my logic CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #32
Sanders will not be successful in appealing to super delegates Gothmog Apr 2016 #29
Unrec. for blind link (which is apparently to your own blog). demmiblue Apr 2016 #34
An admission that you can't deal with the facts CajunBlazer Apr 2016 #37
Die Hard... jmg257 Apr 2016 #36
This whole line of argument never makes sense to me. He needs to win the remaining states by 56% Recursion Apr 2016 #41
Carolina dominated the 1st half of the Super Bowl. Seattle dominated the 2nd half. Garrett78 Apr 2016 #44
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