What is the 1 most important issue to you?

[BlueStreak]

18. Problem is, the right-wingers aren't likely to leave in the next 4 years

There is very little upside and a huge downside.

If we say that in the next 4 years there will be 2 vacancies, the most likely one is Ginsburg. No matter whether it is Obama or Romney, her replacement would be a lot more conservative.

From there, if you go by age, that means either Kennedy or Scalia. Getting rid of Scalia would be huge if Obama named the successor. Kennedy, a little less so. But both of those guys would be highly motivated to try to hang on 4 years, and it wouldn't be surprising if they lived another 10 years or more.

So if there are two, one might be a less conservative one that wants to retire and give Obama a chance to name the replacement. That would seem to be Breyer. Once again, Obama would probably name a Justice that is more conservative than Breyer.