2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A Bernie win in California will still be historic [View all]MineralMan
(146,288 posts)By that time, there may well be a drop-off of Sanders supporters motivated to go to vote in that primary. I can't be sure, but that often happens when a primary can't affect the nomination. I lived in CA for over 50 years, and saw that happen a number of times. California's primary is a late one, so it can serve as a tie-breaker, due to it's huge delegate count. In many elections, it's primary doesn't matter much for the nomination, and California voters respond with low turnouts.
We'll see what happens this year, but I wouldn't count on a Sanders win there. More likely, it will go 60-40 or so for Hillary, based on the trend that is developing. Once it's clear than Sanders can't get the nomination, CA will swing toward the leader. I've seen it happen personally.