2016 Postmortem

Ferd Berfel

(3,687 posts)

7. Who has the best chance

Reply to Garrett78 (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 09:44 PM

May 2016

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The Indiana result represents a continuation of the pattern. [View all] Garrett78 May 2016 OP

I don't care if the hill folks deny it, but losses this late morningfog May 2016 #1

No, they don't. Indiana fits his pattern of a state with few African American voters and an pnwmom May 2016 #2

Plus Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #5

One big difference. RichVRichV May 2016 #24

It won't matter in the GE Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #27

It will matter in the GE. RichVRichV May 2016 #31

I guess it will be up to the Indies Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #33

While "independent" may imply that, surveys show most are party loyalists. Garrett78 May 2016 #35

Independents don't show up for candidates they don't care for. RichVRichV May 2016 #39

Given that Clinton is winning the nomination mythology May 2016 #40

Because by the time they started making decisions the deadlines had already passed. RichVRichV May 2016 #42

Hillary supporters better figure this one out, fast. Red Oak May 2016 #32

And the pattern is Hillary can't win the Independent vote that is critical to the General Election. RichVRichV May 2016 #19

Winning "leaning Dem" independents in the Dem primary does not predict that Bernie pnwmom May 2016 #25

Nothing can predict the future as I keep saying. RichVRichV May 2016 #37

Obama lost the independent vote in 2012. Garrett78 May 2016 #29

Obama won the Independent votes in Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire by more RichVRichV May 2016 #34

That's the myth of the "independent" voter. Garrett78 May 2016 #36

My bad on Ohio, had the numbers reversed. RichVRichV May 2016 #38

Nate Silver also gave her a 90-something % chance of winning Indiana, as I recall. JudyM May 2016 #20

He said that the polls said that, but the demographics predicted a Bernie win. pnwmom May 2016 #26

No they don't. Mesee May 2016 #51

Whistling past the graveyard. If we let Hillary win the nomination, we'll have a Trump white house. CentralCoaster May 2016 #4

In the real world, Hillary has already won the nomination. Mathematically a win by Bernie pnwmom May 2016 #8

Because DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #30

Meh. Obama lost some states toward the end as well. Codeine May 2016 #6

The two idiots the republicans ran against him couldn't cheat their way to a win at Solitaire. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #43

I'm not "Hill folk," but I just don't see that. Garrett78 May 2016 #11

Exactly. cali May 2016 #12

Yea, those late-season losses really put a fatal dent in Obama's fall campaign Tarc May 2016 #16

It doesn't make her weaker. It reveals her weakness virtualobserver May 2016 #3

She has the same weakness Obama did -- white men. But Obama lost pnwmom May 2016 #9

Uh no. It's more than that. Obama galvanized people. She does not. cali May 2016 #13

Yes, she does. We just don't like giant rallies. But we do get out to vote -- and millions more pnwmom May 2016 #28

No, she doesn't. Quit pretending. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #44

Yeah, tell that to the millions of people who preferred her to him. n/t pnwmom May 2016 #48

Who has the best chance Ferd Berfel May 2016 #7

The Rethugs have a solid file of opposition research that they're salivating to use against Bernie. pnwmom May 2016 #10

SO? They have OP research on Clinton collected since 2008 Ferd Berfel May 2016 #15

Irrelevant and wrong. And what dems have on trump is evidently huge. cali May 2016 #17

You have personal, first-hand knowledge about this? If so you should share with this community. JudyM May 2016 #22

Nothing to share. This one makes it up as she goes. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #45

You are right, it seems. Crickets... JudyM May 2016 #50

We would know exactly what hit us. frylock May 2016 #49

If hypothetical GE match-up polling meant anything at this juncture, Dukakis would have become POTUS Garrett78 May 2016 #18

Indiana is working class, like Michigan and Wisconsin before it. ScreamingMeemie May 2016 #14

If by "working class," you mean it has workers, that's true of every state. Garrett78 May 2016 #23

Have they moved Ohio, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri out of the midwest? mythology May 2016 #41

Okay what if trump did everything Hillary did in her past Joob May 2016 #21

Yes. Plus, it's my theory that Sanders does extra well when it's clear that wiggs May 2016 #46

All good points. Garrett78 May 2016 #47