2016 Postmortem

RichVRichV

(885 posts)

19. And the pattern is Hillary can't win the Independent vote that is critical to the General Election.

Tue May 3, 2016, 09:59 PM

May 2016

Keep trying to diminish open primaries like they're meaningless, but all they're doing is proving how poor of a general election candidate Hillary is. If you can't win the Independent vote in the swing states you can't win the presidency.

Independent votes in swing state primaries:

Indiana - Bernie: 70%, Hillary: 30% (Trump got ~247% more Independent votes than Hillary!)
Florida - Bernie: 55%, Hillary: 44% (Trump got ~68% more Independent votes than Hillary)
Ohio - Bernie: 66%, Hillary: 33% (Bernie had about same Independent votes as Trump)
Virginia - Bernie: 58%, Hillary: 42% (Bernie had more Independent votes than Trump)
North Carolina - Bernie: 58%, Hillary: 34% (Bernie got ~45% more Independent votes than Trump)
Nevada - Bernie: 71%, Hillary: 23% (Bernie got at least 50% more Independent votes than Trump)
Iowa - Bernie: 69%, Hillary: 26% (no vote totals released for Democrats)
New Hampshire - Bernie: 73%, Hillary: 25% (Bernie got ~67% more Independent votes than Trump)
Pennsylvania - Bernie: 72%, Hillary: 26% (Trump got ~132% more Independent votes than Hillary)
Wisconsin - Bernie: 72%, Hillary: 28% (Bernie got ~59% more Independent votes than Trump)

In state after state, even in states that Hillary won huge, she can't seem to win over the Independent identifying voters while Bernie can. You're right there's a pattern here and it's an ugly one for Hillary come November.

-CNN Exit Polls

Percentage comparisons are achieved by multiplying the vote totals for each primary times the exit poll 'Independent percentage' times the 'percent of Independent votes' for each candidate (which makes them approximations).

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The Indiana result represents a continuation of the pattern. [View all] Garrett78 May 2016 OP

I don't care if the hill folks deny it, but losses this late morningfog May 2016 #1

No, they don't. Indiana fits his pattern of a state with few African American voters and an pnwmom May 2016 #2

Plus Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #5

One big difference. RichVRichV May 2016 #24

It won't matter in the GE Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #27

It will matter in the GE. RichVRichV May 2016 #31

I guess it will be up to the Indies Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #33

While "independent" may imply that, surveys show most are party loyalists. Garrett78 May 2016 #35

Independents don't show up for candidates they don't care for. RichVRichV May 2016 #39

Given that Clinton is winning the nomination mythology May 2016 #40

Because by the time they started making decisions the deadlines had already passed. RichVRichV May 2016 #42

Hillary supporters better figure this one out, fast. Red Oak May 2016 #32

And the pattern is Hillary can't win the Independent vote that is critical to the General Election. RichVRichV May 2016 #19

Winning "leaning Dem" independents in the Dem primary does not predict that Bernie pnwmom May 2016 #25

Nothing can predict the future as I keep saying. RichVRichV May 2016 #37

Obama lost the independent vote in 2012. Garrett78 May 2016 #29

Obama won the Independent votes in Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire by more RichVRichV May 2016 #34

That's the myth of the "independent" voter. Garrett78 May 2016 #36

My bad on Ohio, had the numbers reversed. RichVRichV May 2016 #38

Nate Silver also gave her a 90-something % chance of winning Indiana, as I recall. JudyM May 2016 #20

He said that the polls said that, but the demographics predicted a Bernie win. pnwmom May 2016 #26

No they don't. Mesee May 2016 #51

Whistling past the graveyard. If we let Hillary win the nomination, we'll have a Trump white house. CentralCoaster May 2016 #4

In the real world, Hillary has already won the nomination. Mathematically a win by Bernie pnwmom May 2016 #8

Because DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #30

Meh. Obama lost some states toward the end as well. Codeine May 2016 #6

The two idiots the republicans ran against him couldn't cheat their way to a win at Solitaire. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #43

I'm not "Hill folk," but I just don't see that. Garrett78 May 2016 #11

Exactly. cali May 2016 #12

Yea, those late-season losses really put a fatal dent in Obama's fall campaign Tarc May 2016 #16

It doesn't make her weaker. It reveals her weakness virtualobserver May 2016 #3

She has the same weakness Obama did -- white men. But Obama lost pnwmom May 2016 #9

Uh no. It's more than that. Obama galvanized people. She does not. cali May 2016 #13

Yes, she does. We just don't like giant rallies. But we do get out to vote -- and millions more pnwmom May 2016 #28

No, she doesn't. Quit pretending. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #44

Yeah, tell that to the millions of people who preferred her to him. n/t pnwmom May 2016 #48

Who has the best chance Ferd Berfel May 2016 #7

The Rethugs have a solid file of opposition research that they're salivating to use against Bernie. pnwmom May 2016 #10

SO? They have OP research on Clinton collected since 2008 Ferd Berfel May 2016 #15

Irrelevant and wrong. And what dems have on trump is evidently huge. cali May 2016 #17

You have personal, first-hand knowledge about this? If so you should share with this community. JudyM May 2016 #22

Nothing to share. This one makes it up as she goes. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #45

You are right, it seems. Crickets... JudyM May 2016 #50

We would know exactly what hit us. frylock May 2016 #49

If hypothetical GE match-up polling meant anything at this juncture, Dukakis would have become POTUS Garrett78 May 2016 #18

Indiana is working class, like Michigan and Wisconsin before it. ScreamingMeemie May 2016 #14

If by "working class," you mean it has workers, that's true of every state. Garrett78 May 2016 #23

Have they moved Ohio, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri out of the midwest? mythology May 2016 #41

Okay what if trump did everything Hillary did in her past Joob May 2016 #21

Yes. Plus, it's my theory that Sanders does extra well when it's clear that wiggs May 2016 #46

All good points. Garrett78 May 2016 #47