2016 Postmortem

RichVRichV

(885 posts)

38. My bad on Ohio, had the numbers reversed.

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:46 PM

May 2016

As for Florida, the final results was basically a tie (fraction of a percent) The Independent vote was 3 points. Without the Independent vote Obama doesn't win Florida.

None of this changes the fact that the Independents are the first to not show up if they don't like the candidate presented. Which is a major reason they swing the elections.

The saying goes when "Democrats show up they win". In reality the saying should be "when Democratic leaning Independents show up Democrats win".

So far this primary Hillary has lost the Independent votes in a number of the close 2012 swing states by way larger margins than Obama ever did.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

51 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

The Indiana result represents a continuation of the pattern. [View all] Garrett78 May 2016 OP

I don't care if the hill folks deny it, but losses this late morningfog May 2016 #1

No, they don't. Indiana fits his pattern of a state with few African American voters and an pnwmom May 2016 #2

Plus Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #5

One big difference. RichVRichV May 2016 #24

It won't matter in the GE Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #27

It will matter in the GE. RichVRichV May 2016 #31

I guess it will be up to the Indies Proud Liberal Dem May 2016 #33

While "independent" may imply that, surveys show most are party loyalists. Garrett78 May 2016 #35

Independents don't show up for candidates they don't care for. RichVRichV May 2016 #39

Given that Clinton is winning the nomination mythology May 2016 #40

Because by the time they started making decisions the deadlines had already passed. RichVRichV May 2016 #42

Hillary supporters better figure this one out, fast. Red Oak May 2016 #32

And the pattern is Hillary can't win the Independent vote that is critical to the General Election. RichVRichV May 2016 #19

Winning "leaning Dem" independents in the Dem primary does not predict that Bernie pnwmom May 2016 #25

Nothing can predict the future as I keep saying. RichVRichV May 2016 #37

Obama lost the independent vote in 2012. Garrett78 May 2016 #29

Obama won the Independent votes in Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire by more RichVRichV May 2016 #34

That's the myth of the "independent" voter. Garrett78 May 2016 #36

My bad on Ohio, had the numbers reversed. RichVRichV May 2016 #38

Nate Silver also gave her a 90-something % chance of winning Indiana, as I recall. JudyM May 2016 #20

He said that the polls said that, but the demographics predicted a Bernie win. pnwmom May 2016 #26

No they don't. Mesee May 2016 #51

Whistling past the graveyard. If we let Hillary win the nomination, we'll have a Trump white house. CentralCoaster May 2016 #4

In the real world, Hillary has already won the nomination. Mathematically a win by Bernie pnwmom May 2016 #8

Because DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #30

Meh. Obama lost some states toward the end as well. Codeine May 2016 #6

The two idiots the republicans ran against him couldn't cheat their way to a win at Solitaire. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #43

I'm not "Hill folk," but I just don't see that. Garrett78 May 2016 #11

Exactly. cali May 2016 #12

Yea, those late-season losses really put a fatal dent in Obama's fall campaign Tarc May 2016 #16

It doesn't make her weaker. It reveals her weakness virtualobserver May 2016 #3

She has the same weakness Obama did -- white men. But Obama lost pnwmom May 2016 #9

Uh no. It's more than that. Obama galvanized people. She does not. cali May 2016 #13

Yes, she does. We just don't like giant rallies. But we do get out to vote -- and millions more pnwmom May 2016 #28

No, she doesn't. Quit pretending. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #44

Yeah, tell that to the millions of people who preferred her to him. n/t pnwmom May 2016 #48

Who has the best chance Ferd Berfel May 2016 #7

The Rethugs have a solid file of opposition research that they're salivating to use against Bernie. pnwmom May 2016 #10

SO? They have OP research on Clinton collected since 2008 Ferd Berfel May 2016 #15

Irrelevant and wrong. And what dems have on trump is evidently huge. cali May 2016 #17

You have personal, first-hand knowledge about this? If so you should share with this community. JudyM May 2016 #22

Nothing to share. This one makes it up as she goes. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #45

You are right, it seems. Crickets... JudyM May 2016 #50

We would know exactly what hit us. frylock May 2016 #49

If hypothetical GE match-up polling meant anything at this juncture, Dukakis would have become POTUS Garrett78 May 2016 #18

Indiana is working class, like Michigan and Wisconsin before it. ScreamingMeemie May 2016 #14

If by "working class," you mean it has workers, that's true of every state. Garrett78 May 2016 #23

Have they moved Ohio, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri out of the midwest? mythology May 2016 #41

Okay what if trump did everything Hillary did in her past Joob May 2016 #21

Yes. Plus, it's my theory that Sanders does extra well when it's clear that wiggs May 2016 #46

All good points. Garrett78 May 2016 #47