The #1 key to the Democratic candidate winning in November is...

[quaker bill]

71. Here is your problem

Hillary has generally won big with women over 50 and POC who show up for primaries.

But you are using the Barack Obama model of the electorate here. I was there, and in line at the polls on election day were large numbers of young POC, many just barely of age to vote, waiting in long lines to vote for Barack.

Hillary does not win or even inspire this segment of the population.

John Kerry won POC and Women here by large margins. The problem was that not so many turned out, and there were nearly no young women or POC in the crowds.

In short, Kerry won my county by 2000 votes. 4 years later Barack Obama won POC and Women by similar percentages (a few points better with POC, but in both cases an overwhelming victory margin) However, the youth turnout among women and POC resulted in a margin of 85,000 votes in the same county that both Gore and Kerry had won by 2000 votes, in 2000 and 2004. Now turnout for Barack was not quite as big in 2012, but he still won by 65,000.

Hillary's electorate looks a lot more like Gore and Kerry's. There is your problem. It is the mass, not so much the margins that matter. Any dem can win women and POC by large margins. The question is how many turn out, and if you want big turnout then the place to add mass is in the demos that have a normal low turnout number, young people.