If Hillary wins the nomination, do you expect her to beat Trump in November?

[basselope]

8. Trump beats her very easily.

There is somethings in this race people don't understand and haven't been paying attention to.

First: The polling has been fairly, consistently WRONG in favor of Hillary and other establishment republicans. If you look at the vast majority of the polls on the democratic side, Bernie has FAR outperformed expectations.. most recently Indiana, where polling said he would lose by 6.8, but he won by 6. Indiana Republican polled Trump up by 10, but it was Trump by 17. PA had Trump by 21, but he won by 36. PA Dem had Hillary by 16, but she won by 12. Maryland had trump by 21, but he won by 36.

So why is this happening so often? It is because they are using MOSTLY LIKELY VOTER polls. However, because this election is about establishment vs anti-establishment (in both primaries) it is attracting people who don't qualify as "likely voters". These "unlikely voters" are people voting for the anti-establishment candidates.


Second: The GOP has spent the last 8 years making voting EXTREMELY DIFFICULT for democrats in some very key states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc..) They have perfected a strategy for suppressing the democratic vote (by reducing polling locations in urban areas, meaning long lines... voter ID laws, etc..) However, these conditions are friendly towards GOP voting areas (Suburbs or urban) where you don't have large crowds.

This means that for a democratic nominee to win, they need to inspire OVERWHELMING turnout. Not Obama 2012 numbers.. but Obama 2008 numbers. I think we can ALL agree that Clinton will be VERY VERY lucky if she even comes close to Obama 2012 numbers.


When you combine those two points, you realize these polls showing Clinton winning in states like Florida (RCP average of 5) Ohio (Clinton RCP average of + 3.5) North Carolina (RCP average of Clinton +3.3) Even Pennsylvania (an average of Clinton +7 ) aren't very safe numbers at all.

Combine the complete unreliability of the polls tilted against anti-establishment candidates (meaning Trump is a hell of a lot closer than those polls show) along with voter suppression tactics which is sure to shave 2-3% off the democratic totals.. and you have a pretty clear Trump victory.



Couple of caveats:

IF a 3rd party candidate comes along, it can throw a monkey wrench in everything b/c it could split the anti-establishment vote.

IF the GOP really doesn't seat a SC justice, Clinton COULD use this as a wedge issue to drive turnout. Otherwise.. she doesn't have the platform or appeal to drive turnout.