2016 Postmortem

auntpurl

(4,311 posts) Wed May 18, 2016, 06:02 AM May 2016

Bad night for Bernie, I'm afraid. [View all]

Oregon should have been a blowout. Tailor made for him. White and/or super liberal.

And he should have won KY. Hillary's electoral maps from 16 are extremely similar to Obama 08. She is winning with the Obama coalition, as described here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1990307. It has nothing to do with closed or open primaries (both have won both). It has to do with urban diverse versus rural white. And it has been obvious since the South, so I don't know why people don't get this? Anyway, judging by how this whole primary has gone so far, Bernie should have won KY by a decent margin.

His support is waning, the money is drying up, and if ANY state were going to give him the blowout numbers he'd need to even look like a contender in this race, it should have been Oregon. California is far too diverse to give the kind of numbers Bernie supporters on here keep touting. Oregon should have been like Washington. But people are seeing that his race is run, and people like to vote for the person who's still viable.

Sorry, Bernie supporters, but this is not a good week for the Sanders campaign.

161 replies

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Bad night for Bernie, I'm afraid. [View all] auntpurl May 2016 OP

Hillary ties and it's a big victory. Bernie wins by a healthy margin and it's a loss. o.k. nt merrily May 2016 #1

Well, yes. That's the reality. auntpurl May 2016 #2

Well, no. Here is a very abbreviated version of the big picture-- merrily May 2016 #3

I never said Bernie hasn't made a good showing overall. auntpurl May 2016 #4

Did you even read what I linked you to, let alone give it a thought? THE GENERAL ELECTION. merrily May 2016 #7

Yes, of course I read it. auntpurl May 2016 #8

No, the GE polls at this stage are not meaningless. Maybe that was true 4 months ago It's false now. merrily May 2016 #9

How do you figure she is weak and squeaking by? auntpurl May 2016 #11

Don't make up stuff about who I like. I'm not 12 and she's not running for prom queen. merrily May 2016 #21

We will agree to disagree. auntpurl May 2016 #29

On what? She deflected from Bernie's disappointing Hortensis May 2016 #107

Oh puffy socks May 2016 #84

OY. Get real. And a clue. First, tell me where I said Michigan or Oregon polls were meaningless. merrily May 2016 #92

I never said YOU said it puffy socks May 2016 #96

Well, now you're just getting incoherent. Maybe a nap? merrily May 2016 #97

Yes it is hard to keep up with the Berni campus total twisted logic I realize that that's not my pro puffy socks May 2016 #100

Indeed, and if the will of minority voters is overturned... joshcryer May 2016 #10

Personally... auntpurl May 2016 #12

But you can understand the 2008 "racially-tinged" campaign Hillary ran as progressive? merrily May 2016 #23

I reject the characterisation. auntpurl May 2016 #31

Too bad. It's true. It happened; it was widely reported and recognized; and it had a stench. merrily May 2016 #33

And how. As do very strikingly most "POC." Hortensis May 2016 #94

Good point. Hortensis May 2016 #99

Obama lost Demsrule86 May 2016 #17

See Reply 21. (Or don't, since you admit you don't listen to reason.) merrily May 2016 #34

Why would I listen Demsrule86 May 2016 #144

At this point, yes. Becuase in the end, the delegates count, and he's way behind. nt Adrahil May 2016 #28

A win is still not a loss, no matter how its spun. Neither is a tie a win. Sorry. merrily May 2016 #46

Not really leftynyc May 2016 #68

He needed to win with a 40 pt margin. He got 9. That's a loss. A **HUGE** loss. baldguy May 2016 #41

That Hillary started with a 65 point lead and every other advantage and has not put the nom merrily May 2016 #47

After every one of his "victories", the margin Sanders needs to win by increases. baldguy May 2016 #55

So, what I posted was correct. Thanks! merrily May 2016 #58

And that's the reason math-challenged Sanders supporters in the end will be disappointed. baldguy May 2016 #66

Your assumption that I cannot add and subtract is as wrongheaded, baseless and silly as merrily May 2016 #67

If you need 7 to win and you get 5, then you lose. Even if the other person only got 4. baldguy May 2016 #86

Hillary didn't start with any lead. We're talking about pledged delegates here. yardwork May 2016 #104

Exactly. Hortensis May 2016 #112

You are mistaken. Hillary won KY (not a tie). riversedge May 2016 #126

No, you're mistaken. I didn't say she tied KY. merrily May 2016 #134

Given the spot that Bernie is in, it is clearly a loss. kstewart33 May 2016 #128

I acknowledge your racist comment... MrMickeysMom May 2016 #5

??? auntpurl May 2016 #6

Nowhere Stuckinthebush May 2016 #64

Thanks. auntpurl May 2016 #77

Racist seriously? Adrahil May 2016 #32

less than 100 delegates are needed by hillary to secure the nomination beachbum bob May 2016 #13

Yeah, it's bad optics. auntpurl May 2016 #14

The disgrace was Roberta Lange conducting the proceedings like a U.S.S.R. Poltiburo meeting... Human101948 May 2016 #37

So she was asking for it? auntpurl May 2016 #38

Following the rules & not seating delegates who don't show up apparently require death threats. baldguy May 2016 #42

I don't know why but auntpurl May 2016 #43

Planned Parenthood was the final straw for me. joshcryer May 2016 #48

Seriously. PLANNED PARENTHOOD. auntpurl May 2016 #50

Straining our credulity again, josh? Where you stood has been obvious. merrily May 2016 #62

Huh, you removed your sticky? joshcryer May 2016 #81

Rant on with that nonsense, but none of that was the point of my post, as you know. merrily May 2016 #85

I point out ugliness. joshcryer May 2016 #87

No. I pointed out your hypocrisy and you changed the subject.There's nothing lofty about that merrily May 2016 #95

No, you implied a faulty assumption. joshcryer May 2016 #98

I implied nothing. I said stuff flat out. Or do you mean inferred? I don't "bash," either. merrily May 2016 #103

Um, you didn't say shit flat out. joshcryer May 2016 #105

Um, no. You don't know crap about my support of Sanders, but, then again, I never pretended to merrily May 2016 #138

You won't be rallying behind Sanders when he stumps for Clinton. joshcryer May 2016 #141

K & R most enthusiastically. SO well said. Surya Gayatri May 2016 #15

Maybe so but I'm glad he has not conceded. aikoaiko May 2016 #16

I'm not calling for him to concede but auntpurl May 2016 #18

Not conceding means fighting HRC for the nomination at every moment aikoaiko May 2016 #26

I wish Clinton supporters would practice what they preach Scootaloo May 2016 #152

When was the last time you heard Hillary mention Bernie? auntpurl May 2016 #153

I did say Clinton supporters, didn't I? Scootaloo May 2016 #154

YOU did, but the post you were replying to was auntpurl May 2016 #155

And I can talk about what I like. Scootaloo May 2016 #156

+1 merrily May 2016 #25

Compare Hillary Clinton vs Obama in 2008 in Kentucky vs Clinton vs Sanders 2016 PufPuf23 May 2016 #19

I AM comparing them. auntpurl May 2016 #20

I had noticed that - Clinton winning states Obama won in 2008 and Sanders vice versa - PufPuf23 May 2016 #24

It's a false equivalency. Obama had media on his side plus many Democrats, including PTB like merrily May 2016 #30

Not to put too fine a point on it.... Adrahil May 2016 #35

Actually, it is still in play. auntpurl May 2016 #36

Time for Bernie to fold up his tent and go quietly into the night. oasis May 2016 #22

Luckily, that's not your decision. It's not even mine, and I am a donor. merrily May 2016 #27

Bernie can go on being defiant for all I care. He doesn't seem oasis May 2016 #39

If you don't care, what's the point of posting he should quit? In fact, even if you do care, merrily May 2016 #49

He can stay, but auntpurl May 2016 #40

He's becoming too radioactive for any super delegates to get oasis May 2016 #44

Yeah. As I said above, people are going to be edging away auntpurl May 2016 #45

I watched his speech last night and again this morning on Cspan. He didn't attack Hillary at all, B Calm May 2016 #53

Excellent. Glad to hear it. auntpurl May 2016 #54

No way in hell are any supers getting behind Sanders now workinclasszero May 2016 #56

I thought it was a very good night for Bernie, especially considering Vinca May 2016 #51

"Kentucky has always been a Hillary state." auntpurl May 2016 #52

That's a very silly analogy. Vinca May 2016 #59

Look at the electoral maps. auntpurl May 2016 #61

But Hillary is not Obama. By a long shot. Vinca May 2016 #65

That's true. She's winning by more than he ever was. auntpurl May 2016 #70

Too bad she can't rustle up a crowd that looks larger than free lunch day at the senior center. Vinca May 2016 #140

Yes, she's not amazing with huge rallies, bumper stickers, or yard signs auntpurl May 2016 #142

"instead of shouting . . . " That's a joke, right? Vinca May 2016 #145

You're not afraid and your not sorry, so why say so? bjo59 May 2016 #57

Just being polite. auntpurl May 2016 #60

Yes, it will be a need for over 100% of the delegate count in the primaries. Thinkingabout May 2016 #63

Just 130 more states to go and Bernie's got this! auntpurl May 2016 #69

Maybe we could capture some more territory before the convention to Thinkingabout May 2016 #79

Is that facetiousness really necessary? chwaliszewski May 2016 #88

I was only joking. auntpurl May 2016 #90

Apology accepted. chwaliszewski May 2016 #101

I look forward to DU in civil mode. auntpurl May 2016 #102

Right it was a bad night for Bernie it was also a bad night for Hillary. gordianot May 2016 #71

Hillary is in an extremely strong position going into the convention and the GE. auntpurl May 2016 #74

Hillary is a corrupt neo con more of a tool than a leader. gordianot May 2016 #91

Ok. auntpurl May 2016 #93

Lol, i love your dramatic title. Silly. Nt Logical May 2016 #72

Is it dramatic? auntpurl May 2016 #75

Three million more votes for Hillary so far Progressive dog May 2016 #73

I still think she will win California. auntpurl May 2016 #76

Not only will she win, texstad79 May 2016 #114

and only 57 million more people haven't voted. How proud you must be! B Calm May 2016 #78

Everyone should vote their conscience in the primary. auntpurl May 2016 #80

You seem to be confusing population with Progressive dog May 2016 #89

ha. thanks for trying... RazBerryBeret May 2016 #82

Hey, march away, my friend. auntpurl May 2016 #83

HRC supporters are in for a rude awakening... vi5 May 2016 #106

More doomsaying. auntpurl May 2016 #108

We'll see.... vi5 May 2016 #113

Ponies, rainbows and unicorns. gordianot May 2016 #118

Trump will get Bush voters and then some. vi5 May 2016 #119

Once upon a time in Missouri the hot populist ticket was Jerry Litton. gordianot May 2016 #124

You're right. Stuff changes. auntpurl May 2016 #125

You're absolutely right. vi5 May 2016 #129

Sanders would have come close to Litton who was to the left of Sanders. gordianot May 2016 #131

You're more optimistic than I am. vi5 May 2016 #146

No, he won't. Bush got 44% of the Latino vote, Romney 27% and Trump is polling in single digits. stevenleser May 2016 #135

There's a reason oddsmakers say Clinton is likely to be the next POTUS. Garrett78 May 2016 #149

Winner, yes exactly. gordianot May 2016 #109

Conservatives are strongly motivated by fear. Hortensis May 2016 #115

They hate Clinton more than they fear Trump vi5 May 2016 #120

"They" are not monolithic. "They" are people. Hortensis May 2016 #123

I do.... vi5 May 2016 #127

I wrote my Masters Thesis on use of pronouns in reading comprehension. gordianot May 2016 #133

I need a sword to help untangle this. Hortensis May 2016 #147

That cuts the knot. gordianot May 2016 #148

Seriously, I often wince over Hortensis May 2016 #150

We are all susceptible to the so called strawman argument. gordianot May 2016 #157

Seriously, it's possible to "master" them? Hortensis May 2016 #158

Current research implies the distance of the original referent is a factor. gordianot May 2016 #159

Well, I can believe that - and more difficult for some Hortensis May 2016 #161

Indeed. For all practical purposes he lost both contests. DCBob May 2016 #110

I genuinely did expect a bigger win for him in Oregon. auntpurl May 2016 #116

Hillaryous fantasy, but here in America a 10% margin is called a "victory" lagomorph777 May 2016 #111

Ok then. auntpurl May 2016 #117

OTOH, HRC beat Obama 65-30 in '08, and Oregon poll had BS down by 15. thesquanderer May 2016 #121

No, you don't understand. auntpurl May 2016 #122

Glaring absence from the Obama coalition for Hillary: young voters. Lizzie Poppet May 2016 #137

You're right, that is one difference. auntpurl May 2016 #139

No argument, re: electoral maps. (nm) Lizzie Poppet May 2016 #143

Welcome back. Don't you love reincarnation? n/t arcane1 May 2016 #130

? In what sense? auntpurl May 2016 #132

"urban diverse vs rural white" Lizzie Poppet May 2016 #136

Even worse (since clearly the race is over, so no one is paying attention to that) is the violence. anotherproletariat May 2016 #151

LOL. Sanders won by 12% in Oregon. Clinton cheated her way to a 0.5% "victory" in closed primary mhatrw May 2016 #160