2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: How many here would like it if Trump won so you could have your revolution faster? [View all]Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)If Bernie were the nominee, the Senate would almost certainly go Democratic, and the House might, or at least shift enough were it could in the 2018 midterms. In 2020, if the growth of the progressive movement continued (which I believe it would, due to demographics as well as effective progressive governance), a Sanders re-election could ensure long-standing Democratic majorities in the House & Senate, and continued support for policies that have worked well in Europe to ease poverty and limit income inequality. Just as importantly, it would re-establish the Democratic Party as the party of the people, and a force that could effectively counter Wall Street/corporate power and influence. Those monied interest might flee to the GOP, but with control over all of the branches of government, effective campaign finance reform could neuter the big money interests that have worked against working-class and poor Americans for generations.
If Hillary were to win, I think we would maintain the social gains won by women, minorities, and LGBT Americans (just as we would under President Sanders), but both the country and the Democratic Party would suffer under the very monied interests that Sen Sanders opposes and HRC embraces (and have bankrolled both her campaign and the Clinton "non-profit" honeypots like the CGI and Presidential library fund). Progressive interests might be purged from the Democratic Party, and the GOP might retain enough support to challenge her and Democrats in both 2018 and 2020. In fact, I think the Senate could remain in GOP hands, and I don't see any scenario under which the GOP loses the House in 2016, 2018, or 2020. Economic justice would be given little more than lip service, and the quality of life for millions of working-class and poor Americans would continue to decline, while the 1% would continue to hoard ever-greater shares of our economic output. She might also spend her Presidency mired in impeachment proceedings, as I doubt the GOP will simply walk away from her email and pay-to-play scandals. And in the face of scandal, she may turn to military adventurism to boost her poll numbers. She's certainly not averse to turning loose the dogs of war.
If Trump were to win, I doubt he would go full-on right wing religious nut on America (it's not who he is). He might toss a few insignificant bones to the mouth-breathers, but nothing that might upset voters enough to endanger Trump politically (think of a modestly more socially conservative Hillary). Economically, he might even be less beholden to Wall Street & corporations than HRC, but I doubt we would see meaningful positive change - he might toss out a bone or two to the working-class populists that support him at present. Militarily I think he's a Fortress America type, so we probably wouldn't be starting any wars intentionally, although his big mouth might start one inadvertently. I have no idea what his election might do WRT party control of Congress, other than if his racist streak takes hold, and a war starts on his watch, it might swing everything back towards Democrats on a timetable that could be months to years in the making. I do think having HRC off the national stage might allow the Democratic Party to continue to embrace progressive policies and candidates. Not that I want to see Trump win, but I have a hard time seeing how much worse a Trump presidency would be compared to Hillary.
Yes, I understand a SCOTUS appointment could go bad on us, but if HRC is one and done or is faced with large GOP majorities, we're not going to see progressive judges nominated or confirmed. In the final analysis I find both a Hillary presidency and a Trump presidency bad for America, but a Hillary Presidency potentially worse for the Democratic Party in the long term. If Goldman Sachs. Walmart, and defense contractors are allowed to run the Denocratic Party, progressives will flee, and without progressives, Democrats are in trouble.
While I know the possibility of a Sanders presidency is the least likely of the 3 scenarios, it far and away offers the best prospects for both America and the Democratic Party. Not to mention the rest of the planet. As long as there is hope, I will fight to keep that hope alive.