2016 Postmortem

ucrdem

(15,720 posts)

105. That's it in a nutshell.

Sat May 21, 2016, 04:33 AM

May 2016

Most or all Dems who voted for Sanders in the primaries will understand that he can't win the general and vote for Hillary to stop Trump. Reasonable swing voters will do the same, except those that either like Trump (he gets those) or dislike him but dislike Hillary more (Sanders gets those). So basically they split the anti-Clinton vote and Clinton wins, possibly without a popular majority, but with an electoral majority looking something like this:

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If Sanders runs 3rd party, Clinton wins. Here's why: [View all] ucrdem May 2016 OP

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to predict the future with accuracy? uppityperson May 2016 #1

Keep telling yourself that. BillZBubb May 2016 #2

Sanders in not going to run third party Ash_F May 2016 #3

he might 6chars May 2016 #4

Yep. ucrdem May 2016 #8

Solid record of achievement. Thorough, complete issue development senz May 2016 #49

AGREED SUCH HUBRIS... The BEST Candidate of The THREE Would Be By A Large Margin Bernie Sanders CorporatistNation May 2016 #125

"Letting him on the stage"? Armstead May 2016 #77

No he won't. He's made that clear. morningfog May 2016 #13

Yes he has. ucrdem May 2016 #18

No it doesn't. He would have to start last month getting on ballots. morningfog May 2016 #20

Baseless, yes, but let's be clear: Sanders no longer presents a threat to Dems in November. ucrdem May 2016 #22

Same possibility as Hillary shaving her head and leaving the race to join the Hare Krishna, sure. Scootaloo May 2016 #27

LOL, now THAT might affect the outcome in November. nt ucrdem May 2016 #30

I so wish she would. Autumn May 2016 #51

I'm glad he won't. It's not in the long term interests of a big tent party to not try to unite. ancianita May 2016 #61

Bernie will never rush to join the Hare Krishna. Autumn May 2016 #68

Yeah, just what we need senz May 2016 #67

My friend, I bow to your delightful wisdom Autumn May 2016 #71

ty Autumn senz May 2016 #80

Tell Clinton the sixteenth largest voting bloc are Hare Krishna members Rattlesnake Chaser May 2016 #143

Yeah, four terms as mayor, then 25 years in the House and Senate. senz May 2016 #48

Yeah. And pigs might fly out of my butt. cherokeeprogressive May 2016 #83

But he's always got that in his back pocket. ucrdem May 2016 #5

He rejected it from the get-go. senz May 2016 #73

It was never a bargaining chip! Silver_Witch May 2016 #130

Yes republican turnout has been ahead of Democrats Andy823 May 2016 #16

Correct. Fawke Em May 2016 #39

not really DLCWIdem May 2016 #113

And she'll ride to the coronation on her unicorn and give free Skittles to everyone AgerolanAmerican May 2016 #6

It wouldn't help, no, but at this point the Bernie rump is not going to be all that helpful anyway. ucrdem May 2016 #9

You FINALLY found a scenario where Clinton wins! arcane1 May 2016 #7

After California and NJ get through voting ucrdem May 2016 #11

Absolutely. If Clinton runs against Trump, she wins. If Clinton runs against Sanders and Trump, seabeyond May 2016 #10

There's no doubt that Trump is taking cues from Sanders. ucrdem May 2016 #15

You need votes to win. Scootaloo May 2016 #36

Over 80% of Sanders People will comfortably vote for Clinton. Nt seabeyond May 2016 #40

Wouldn't hurt for her to make the effort to make sure and cement that. Scootaloo May 2016 #43

You know what? Not my place. Not Clinton's place. It is not enough for her to reach out. seabeyond May 2016 #84

It's Clinton's job to convince people to vote for her. Scootaloo May 2016 #86

I disagree. I do not think Clinton has done all the stuff you allot her. I think by her policies seabeyond May 2016 #89

I've yet to see you or any of her supporters enumerate her policies. Scootaloo May 2016 #90

Clintons policies are not one liners, or two words, like free college, free healthcare. seabeyond May 2016 #91

And see, right there Scootaloo May 2016 #98

Really? Silver_Witch May 2016 #131

Some are going to listen. Most of the PUMA 2016 will not listen for any reason. seabeyond May 2016 #134

Sorry I am listening carefully! Silver_Witch May 2016 #135

If you look at all the things she has discussed, you would see a progressive agenda. If you do not seabeyond May 2016 #137

Thanks for the judgement .! Silver_Witch May 2016 #139

And, this is exactly why people are not going to bother. seabeyond May 2016 #140

Because you have. No defense of Hillary's War mongering! Silver_Witch May 2016 #142

If Sanders run 3rd Party he'll get my vote. Tierra_y_Libertad May 2016 #12

Sanders isn't running 3rd party. Hillary wouldn't win if he did but he's NOT RUNNING AS A 3rd PARTY! Attorney in Texas May 2016 #14

Of course he's not. And of course he'd lose again if he did. But so would Trump. ucrdem May 2016 #17

It's all acedemic because he won't run third party. morningfog May 2016 #19

He doesn't take half Dems in a 3-party race. ucrdem May 2016 #21

It's not going to happen, but I would be interested in seeing three-way polling. morningfog May 2016 #23

You're right, it isn't going to happen. nt ucrdem May 2016 #25

New voters don't favor Dems when Clinton sits on top of the ticket. Not with Bernie still an option. Betty Karlson May 2016 #24

Hard to say but conservatively they split. If they were already R they'll stay R of course. nt ucrdem May 2016 #26

Nope. Sanders has cross-over appeal in that age bracket. Betty Karlson May 2016 #28

He's pitching to them but then would they have voted in November anyway? ucrdem May 2016 #31

Nope: if he is on the ticket, they will come out to vote. Betty Karlson May 2016 #87

Yes, they'd vote for Bernie, and he might even win Vermont. ucrdem May 2016 #92

"he might even win Vermont" - where did I hear that before? Betty Karlson May 2016 #103

72% of Sanders supporters are already indicating that they'll vote for Clinton in November. TwilightZone May 2016 #97

That's only his Democratic supporters. His independent supporters show detest Clinton Betty Karlson May 2016 #102

Here is a three-way map to play with: morningfog May 2016 #29

And the winner is . . . ucrdem May 2016 #62

I had a hard time even coming to conclusions in most states. morningfog May 2016 #69

I'm a Bernie supporter but I think that map is probably damn accurate. n/t davidlynch May 2016 #100

Thank you! ucrdem May 2016 #106

No way does he get Virginia not with the AA pop there DLCWIdem May 2016 #114

Funny ablamj May 2016 #111

fantasy island DLCWIdem May 2016 #115

Wow, delusional. Must be the Clinton meth. HooptieWagon May 2016 #133

A lot of Rs in my area do NOT like Trump and they hate Clinton. Go figure. At this point, Hiraeth May 2016 #32

Bernie would doubtless get a substantial turnout, maybe some electoral votes, ucrdem May 2016 #33

He won't. This is ludicrous conspiracy theory junk from hill fans cali May 2016 #34

Of course he won't. But the pitch isn't coming from us. nt ucrdem May 2016 #35

Hill fans aren't the ones suggesting he run third-party. Look around. TwilightZone May 2016 #46

Hey, did you say "bring it on?" So you WANT rateyes May 2016 #37

To clarify, I mean "bring it on if you insist." No, I'm not endorsing it. ucrdem May 2016 #38

did you take into account where he can't get on the ballot because of sore loser laws DLCWIdem May 2016 #116

No just filing deadlines which are through this summer with one in early September. ucrdem May 2016 #120

Of course you are endorsing it. Silver_Witch May 2016 #138

Cool. Then nobody should take issue if he does it. Joe the Revelator May 2016 #41

Translation: some Hill Folk fear a 3rd party run. senz May 2016 #42

I was worried about a Bernie run, but she soldiered on through. ucrdem May 2016 #45

Brockian dirty tricks and election theft is now "soldiering on through?" senz May 2016 #52

Another way of expressing it would be to say she's winning, ucrdem May 2016 #56

Oh I love it! Pity pity cry cry / chortle chortle brag brag. senz May 2016 #63

He won't. Also, Independents don't split or go Trump. CBS's poll shows Hillary up 51/33 with Is TwilightZone May 2016 #44

Yes, I agree completely. ucrdem May 2016 #47

It's not happening so you can stop with this devisive bullshit, trying to scare people. TheBlackAdder May 2016 #50

If it isn't happening there's nothing to be afraid of. And no, it isn't happening. nt ucrdem May 2016 #53

It's not happening, not "If it isn't..." No other reason to say that besides stirring the pot! TheBlackAdder May 2016 #66

Exact same words. ucrdem May 2016 #70

You know. Playing coy or ignorant doesn't work. TheBlackAdder May 2016 #75

It isn't going to happen. Can we agree on that at least? ucrdem May 2016 #82

If you don't think this will happen why did you write the OP? St Aug girl May 2016 #78

Because there might be some who would like it to. The point is that it wouldn't matter. nt ucrdem May 2016 #79

Even though the republicans are running a fascist know-nothing clown, he The_Casual_Observer May 2016 #54

Must be Clinton Meth. HooptieWagon May 2016 #55

You left out the most important factor - by November most Bernie-ites will have lost interest tonyt53 May 2016 #57

Sorry, but he's not going to run 3rd party. n/t PoliticAverse May 2016 #58

re: "It might be harder but she still wins." thesquanderer May 2016 #59

My concern is she "wins," but not with a majority of voters. I think it goes to Congress then and Hoyt May 2016 #60

I get a big win for Clinton on this electoral map: ucrdem May 2016 #65

I hope you are right. Hoyt May 2016 #72

I think Bill got less than 50% of voters in 92 ucrdem May 2016 #81

Yep, he did, but Perot was in the race. TwilightZone May 2016 #95

Huh, that's interesting. TwilightZone May 2016 #96

She doesn't need a majority. Popular vote doesn't elect the president. TwilightZone May 2016 #94

I think I see what you're getting at now. Here's what happens if she doesn't get 270 EVs: ucrdem May 2016 #108

And if aliens shaped like giant neck pillows invade Earth and kill us all, it wont matter. Warren DeMontague May 2016 #64

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #74

Sanders will not run third way nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #76

I doubt very highly that he will run third party. barrow-wight May 2016 #85

There is no scenario where Hillary becomes president. DesMoinesDem May 2016 #88

Here's one to consider: ucrdem May 2016 #93

you are outa yer mind. lol. wheres the sarcasm tag? BootinUp May 2016 #99

"...OK," said Patrick doubtfully. His head tilted a bit, and a crease formed between his eyebrows. PatrickforO May 2016 #101

Sanders and Trump are after the same voting block nt Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #104

That's it in a nutshell. ucrdem May 2016 #105

I agree. Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #107

Exactly. ucrdem May 2016 #109

Lol Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #110

Question why wouldn't she take Virginia she won it in the primary extensive AA pop? DLCWIdem May 2016 #117

You know that's a good point. Lets give her Virginia ucrdem May 2016 #119

She would win WA, ME and RI? SheenaR May 2016 #112

Fine, give all three to Bernie and she still wins with over 270: ucrdem May 2016 #118

Perhaps you missed where I said SheenaR May 2016 #124

Not enough time left to get on the ballot PDittie May 2016 #121

I disagree and don't lose sleep over what might be. He has no intention of doing that. Vinca May 2016 #122

There will be no third party.... yuiyoshida May 2016 #123

I'm so glad Bernie is smarter than that. n/t CanonRay May 2016 #126

What if Martians attack? And Hillary turns out to be a robot? TheFarseer May 2016 #127

More crazy hyperbole! Silver_Witch May 2016 #128

Are you trying to bum out BS supporters?... dubyadiprecession May 2016 #129

So you support Sanders running as a third party in the GE? HooptieWagon May 2016 #132

Looks like someone needs a basic understanding of the Electoral College shawn703 May 2016 #136

Look out, some could see this advocating for a 3rd party candidate. aikoaiko May 2016 #141