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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Romney +4 PA: Susquehanna. Wingnuts hopeful again [View all]CreekDog
(46,192 posts)21. here's some issues with the last Susquehanna poll showing a 4 pt lead
Last Susquehanna Poll (10/18/12) / 2008 Vote (or Exit Polls)/2004 Vote (or Exit Polls)
Philadelphia----->10% / 12% / 11.7%
Allegheny Co.--->10% / 11% / 11%
Men-------------->48% / 46% / 47%
Women---------->52% / 54% / 53%
White------------->88% / 81% / 82%
Black------------->10% / 13% / 13%
Hispanic----------> 1% / 4% / 3%
1% Hispanic in Pennsylvania? There are a lot of Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania and in 2008 they voted too.
Also, note the men/women split.
Oversampled whites too.
Sounds suspect to me.
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I don't think guru Nate even has pa in play for Rmonney now or in the recent past
Thekaspervote
Nov 2012
#5
Silver has the poll average for Obama at +4.7% and a 96% chance of winning the state!
Logical
Nov 2012
#16
VIDEO - Rachel explaining the PA headfake that Republicans do every election.
boingboinh
Nov 2012
#26