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Gothmog

(174,136 posts)
78. Yes, Clinton is winning the popular vote — by a wide margin
Mon May 30, 2016, 07:46 PM
May 2016

Shaun King's claim that Clinton is not leading in the popular vote is simply wrong https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/19/yes-hillary-clinton-is-winning-the-popular-vote-by-a-wide-margin/

The idea that the popular vote totals are flawed because caucuses aren't included has been floating around for a while. The point of questioning the sum is obvious: To question the extent to which Democratic voters (and independents voting in Democratic contests, who usually favor Sanders) have preferred Clinton as the party's nominee.

This has been floating around so long, in fact, The Post's fact-checkers looked at this issue at the beginning of April. Did Clinton at that point actually lead by 2.5 million votes, as she claimed? No, she didn't.

She led by 2.4 million votes.

The Post's Glenn Kessler arrived at that figure by taking estimates of how many people came out to vote in caucus contests and applying the final vote margin to that population. This is admittedly imprecise, as King notes, since in some caucuses (like Iowa's) voter preferences can and do change. Kessler's total included Washington, despite King's insistence -- and in Washington, he figured that Sanders had the support of 167,201 voters to Clinton's 62,330. Despite that, still a 2.4 million advantage for Clinton.

It's worth noting that caucuses, for which it's harder to calculate vote totals, are usually in smaller states and/or have smaller turnout. King's concern about ensuring Alaska's huge Democratic voting base is included in the tally is answered by Kessler's math.

What's more, Kessler continued updating his tally as results came in. The most recent update was after the contests on April 27, at which point her wins in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and other Northeastern states had extended her lead to "just over 3 million votes" -- including his estimates for the caucuses. (By my tabulation of Kessler's numbers, it's 3.03 million.)

Since then, there have been five contests.

Indiana. Sanders won with 32,152 more votes.
Guam. Clinton won with 249 more votes.
West Virginia. Sanders won with 30,509 more votes.
Kentucky. Clinton won with 1,924 more votes (per the latest AP count).
Oregon. Sanders won with 69,007 more votes (per AP).

In total, then, Clinton's lead over Sanders in the popular vote is 2.9 million. The difference isn't because the total excludes Washington. It's because it includes more recent contests from the past 14 days.

That number will continue to change. There are only two big states left -- New Jersey and California -- both of which vote June 7. Clinton leads by a wide margin in New Jersey, where more than a million people turned out in 2008. She has a smaller lead in California, where about 5 million voted in the Democratic primary eight years ago. For Sanders to pass Clinton in the popular vote, he would need turnout like 2008 in California -- and to win by 57 points.

Clinton is only up on Sanders by 2.9 million votes and that is a real number

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

#berniemath YouDig May 2016 #1
#MathLikeHonestyIsHardForHilbots TalkingDog May 2016 #2
Sock puppet... Buddyblazon May 2016 #21
Math is good. YouDig May 2016 #27
#sockpuppetsarebad Buddyblazon May 2016 #28
8 days. Are you excited? YouDig May 2016 #30
#sockpuppettryhard Buddyblazon May 2016 #31
Well, I'm excited. It's nice being on the winning side. YouDig May 2016 #32
Bernie won the caucus with a far smaller number WhiteTara May 2016 #3
I'm not attached to an outcome. I'm attached to the truth. TalkingDog May 2016 #7
So people show up and vote, and the one with most votes wins sweetloukillbot May 2016 #53
3,000,000 more people have voted for Clinton than voted for Sanders. annavictorious May 2016 #76
Of course it's a fact SCantiGOP May 2016 #77
Primaries are not decided by popular vote Demsrule86 May 2016 #89
Huh? brush May 2016 #4
Reading the article is a good idea if you want to clear up confusion. TalkingDog May 2016 #9
Just post the number, pls. brush May 2016 #12
Reading is hard... Buddyblazon May 2016 #24
Ah . . . you don't have one. Don't waste our time. It's a holiday. brush May 2016 #33
I won't open the book therefore words do not exist. Ed Suspicious May 2016 #52
Too challenging to write a post that includes the numbers you claim? brush May 2016 #59
Cliffs notes samson212 May 2016 #61
How many people participated in Maine? Renew Deal May 2016 #5
So what you're saying is that in 'reality' Sanders is winning? anotherproletariat May 2016 #6
Nope. I'm saying throwing that number out is propaganda. The number means nothing. TalkingDog May 2016 #11
So, it's kind of like Sanders telling his people to keep sending money, he's going to win? anotherproletariat May 2016 #14
And you guys got that lie wrong too. Bernie doesn't ask his supporters to send money pdsimdars May 2016 #86
The popular vote of the people voting in Dem primaries or caucuses does though. brush May 2016 #15
Popular vote does not decide the primary samson212 May 2016 #63
Well, if you leave out the step of popular votes brush May 2016 #75
Are you being serious? samson212 Jun 2016 #92
Now are you being serious? brush Jun 2016 #94
Yes, it's a big lead. samson212 Jun 2016 #96
What, your point is so deep that I keep missing it? brush Jun 2016 #97
Not that deep, but apparently still hard to follow for you. samson212 Jun 2016 #100
Well, there is that — math brush Jun 2016 #101
Way to change the subject samson212 Jun 2016 #102
Hard to argue with though. He's losing. brush Jun 2016 #104
OK, cool samson212 Jun 2016 #107
You clearly have no idea what the word "propaganda" means. TwilightZone May 2016 #23
You clearly have no idea what the word "facts" means. samson212 May 2016 #64
Would you prefer they use a number like 2M? Is that closer to what you perceive to be reality? LonePirate May 2016 #57
Sanders would get 100,000 to 150,000 votes more. hrmjustin May 2016 #8
Alternate reality at its' best....nt asuhornets May 2016 #10
Yep. -nt- NorthCarolina May 2016 #13
She is winning the delegate vote, by much larger margins than Obama. Agnosticsherbet May 2016 #16
The popular vote is one measure. Hillary is winning every measure, Bernie losing by every measure. tritsofme May 2016 #17
And Bernie won the Kansas caucus MissDeeds May 2016 #18
Red states don't matter. TwilightZone May 2016 #26
The winner of the Kansas primary or caucus has gone on to become the Democrat nominee SheilaT May 2016 #45
Turnout ISUGRADIA May 2016 #71
Bernie has 10 million that she will want, and the money also. Just wait. oldandhappy May 2016 #19
He's behind in every other metric, as well, including the only one that matters, delegates. TwilightZone May 2016 #20
Bernie math sucks workinclasszero May 2016 #22
the video is brilliant MariaThinks May 2016 #34
Maths DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #36
Math and reality doesn't work in bernieworld... beachbumbob May 2016 #46
This meme depresses me. samson212 May 2016 #65
Is it possible that... Corporate666 May 2016 #81
Totally untrue samson212 Jun 2016 #90
"Hillary still wins. EVERY TIME" Nobody and I mean NOBODY knows and understands that better than the Number23 May 2016 #69
+1000. nt ecstatic May 2016 #83
Bernie math again! He did not win 72% of 7.2 million votes upaloopa May 2016 #25
seriously. someone took the population of the state and said 72% of those should be MariaThinks May 2016 #35
Ignoring the later state primary where Hillary won Txbluedog May 2016 #38
seriously. no one said that. ever. n/t PaulaFarrell May 2016 #82
That's not the claim samson212 May 2016 #66
And when you look at turnout in primary states and then... Corporate666 May 2016 #80
Ignoring the point again samson212 Jun 2016 #91
This message was self-deleted by its author Renew Deal May 2016 #29
And yet the Washington primaries showed a vastly different result Gothmog May 2016 #37
PREPOSTEROUS disinformation ProgressiveEconomist May 2016 #39
So, because caucuses are bad, so are caucus goers' votes? samson212 May 2016 #67
Pretty sure this lie was debunked a month or so ago, but I'll do it again Tarc May 2016 #40
Did you read the article? samson212 May 2016 #68
Yes. The article writer is lying Tarc May 2016 #74
It's not a lie. At worst, he's doing the same thing you are. samson212 Jun 2016 #93
The point is, correcting for all the caucus-goers results in at most +200k for Bernie Tarc Jun 2016 #95
That's your point. You're ignoring my point and the point of the article. samson212 Jun 2016 #99
It isn't a useful metric TO YOU because it looks bad for Sanders Tarc Jun 2016 #103
Really? Nothing to say about my argument? samson212 Jun 2016 #108
Yes, she is oberliner May 2016 #41
I think Washington is a poor example Trenzalore May 2016 #42
Didn't Washington have a non binding vote and Hillary won? Using your theory say Thinkingabout May 2016 #43
Replace caucuses with primaries and I bet Clinton surpasses 2383 without any superdelegates. Garrett78 May 2016 #48
Yes since most of Sanders wins is in caucus states, caucuses suppress the senior Thinkingabout May 2016 #50
Caucuses get romanticized, but the fact of the matter is they suppress turnout in a big way. Garrett78 May 2016 #44
Why is the total population of a state used? It is not relevant. LiberalFighter May 2016 #47
Washington is a really bad example considering 700k voted in the non binding primary vs. 230k in the tandem5 May 2016 #49
She's closer to "winning" than Sanders even if it only 2.8 million, rather than 3.0 million lead. Hoyt May 2016 #51
Fact is Andy823 May 2016 #54
And one time at band camp ... JoePhilly May 2016 #55
This post is bizarre. If you added up all the results of the primary and caucus voters Clinton would underthematrix May 2016 #56
Did California vote yet? Do you apportion their votes based upon polling even before they vote? Ed Suspicious May 2016 #60
You're in your feels and you're mad. underthematrix May 2016 #79
Gah! That's not the point! samson212 May 2016 #70
No, her total delegate count is not just shy of the 2383 required. cui bono May 2016 #85
K&R x 1,000! Peace Patriot May 2016 #58
No it didnt need reposting jcgoldie May 2016 #62
Thank you. Yes, lies need to be countered. senz May 2016 #72
You can bet your bippy madokie May 2016 #73
Yes, Clinton is winning the popular vote — by a wide margin Gothmog May 2016 #78
Mrs. Clinton will be the nominee, she has the super delegates. akbacchus_BC May 2016 #84
Washington State-bad choice Demsrule86 May 2016 #87
Okay, try this on for size. randome May 2016 #88
Right...Bernie is winning the popular vote book_worm Jun 2016 #98
3 things that need reposting MFM008 Jun 2016 #105
It's actually not all that misleading... And there was a popular vote count for Washington Agschmid Jun 2016 #106
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