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Gothmog

(174,034 posts)
55. The polls being cited by the Sanders supporters are worthless because Sanders has not been vetted
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 02:06 PM
Jun 2016

No one including people who like Sanders think that he has been fully vetted or that he is really electable http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/24/bernie-sanders-is-crushing-donald-trump-head-to-head-and-it-doesn-t-mean-a-thing.html

But I don’t know a single person whose opinions I really value, and I include here Sanders supporters I know, who takes these polls seriously. There’s one simple reason Sanders polls better against Trump than Clinton does, which is that no one (yet) knows anything negative about him. He’s gotten the freest ride a top-tier presidential candidate has ever gotten. The freest, bar none.

While he’s all but called Clinton a harlot, she’s barely said a word about him, at least since the very early days of the contest. And while Republicans have occasionally jibed at him, like Lindsey Graham’s actually quite funny remark that Sanders “went to the Soviet Union on his honeymoon and I don’t think he ever came back,” in far more serious ways, Republican groups have worked to help Sanders weaken Clinton.

That would change on a dime if he became the nominee. I don’t think they’d even have to go into his radical past, although they surely would. Michelle Goldberg of Slate has written good pieces on this. He took some very hard-left and plainly anti-American positions. True, they might not matter to anyone under 45, but more than half of all voters are over 45. And then, big-P politics aside, there’s all that farkakte nonsense he wrote in The Vermont Freeman in the early ’70s about how we should let children touch each others’ genitals and such. Fine, it was 40-plus years ago but it’s out there, and it’s out there.

But if I were a conservative making anti-Sanders ads, I’d stick to taxes. An analysis earlier this year from the Tax Policy Center found that his proposals would raise taxes in the so-called middle quintile (40-60 percent) by $4,700 a year. A median household is around $53,000. Most such households pay an effective tax rate of around 11 percent, or $5,800. From $5,800 to $10,500 constitutes a 45 percent increase.

Sanders will respond that your average family will save that much in deductibles and co-payments, since there would be no more private health insurance. And in a way, he’d have a point—the average out-of-pocket expenses for a family health insurance plan in 2015 were around $4,900. But that is an average that combines families with one really sick person needing lots of care with families where they all just go see the doctor once a year, who spend far less. They’d lose out under socialized health, which Republicans would be sure to make clear.

But all the above suggests a rational discourse, and we know there’ll be no such thing during a campaign. It’ll just be: largest tax increase in American history (which will be true), and take away your doctor (which also might be true in a lot of cases). There’s a first time for everything I guess, but I don’t think anyone has ever won a presidential election proposing a 45 percent tax increase on people of modest incomes. And the increases would be a lot higher on the upper-middle-class households that tend to decide U.S. elections.

Bah, you say. Bernie can handle all these things. Plus, he’s going to get all those white working-class votes that Clinton will never get. It’s true, he will get some of those. But every yin has a yang. How is Sanders going to do with black and Latino voters? They won’t vote for Trump, obviously, but surely some percentage will just stay home. This will matter in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, maybe Michigan—all states were a depressed turnout from unenthused voters of color might make the difference. The media find discussing this a lot less interesting than they do nattering on about the white working class, but it’s real, and Trump is smart enough to get out there and say, “Remember, black people, Bernie said your votes weren’t legitimate.

General election polls don’t reflect anything meaningful until nominees are chosen and running mates selected—that is, July. They especially don’t reflect anything meaningful when respondents know very little about one of the candidates they’re being asked about. Superdelegates know this, and it’s one reason why they’re not going to change. I don’t blame Sanders for touting these polls; any politician would. But everyone subjected to hearing him do so is entitled to be in on the joke.

Sanders has not been vetted and would be a horrible general election candidate

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0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Because it is her turn. That's why. Matt_in_STL Jun 2016 #1
You forget millions of votes and hundereds of delegates. nt. NCTraveler Jun 2016 #5
You truly believe this is how we should pick our nominee? Truly? NCTraveler Jun 2016 #2
Weaker candidate??? The GOP would tear Bernie apart. tonyt53 Jun 2016 #3
Right Meteor Man Jun 2016 #9
Uh, time for a history lesson, McGovern ran in 1972 against Nixon and the similarities are striking. tonyt53 Jun 2016 #13
No, they aren't striking at all. Bernie has NOTHING in common with McGovern Ken Burch Jun 2016 #23
Bernie is more like Mondale who also ran on raising taxes on the middle class redstateblues Jun 2016 #38
A closer analogy-but there was more to Mondale's humiliating defeat than that. Ken Burch Jun 2016 #50
Really? The McGovern campaign reminds me a great deal of the Sanders campaign Gothmog Jun 2016 #56
It's not as though we'd have done better in '72 Ken Burch Jun 2016 #67
Yes, the similarities are striking. McGovern wooed college students the most. tonyt53 Jun 2016 #57
1) It's not accurate to say ALL unions back HRC Ken Burch Jun 2016 #66
Excellent, Accurate, and just otherwise Spot On, Ken.. 2banon Jun 2016 #64
done(with modifications) Ken Burch Jun 2016 #68
Hillary, too. libdem4life Jun 2016 #26
But the attack ads on Sanders write themselves Gothmog Jun 2016 #61
voters over 50 may prefer Hillary to Bernie, that doesn't mean they wouldn't prefer Bernie to Trump thesquanderer Jun 2016 #19
"will ever vote for a socialist" JonLeibowitz Jun 2016 #34
I'm nearly 50 (46) and my Mom and Step-Mom are in their late 60s. Fawke Em Jun 2016 #53
The GOP has nothing on Sanders AgingAmerican Jun 2016 #58
BUT SHE'S AHEAD! MisterP Jun 2016 #4
+1 Truth. nt. NCTraveler Jun 2016 #6
Follow the money Meteor Man Jun 2016 #7
Bingo GreatGazoo Jun 2016 #72
If this were only NOT the case! elleng Jun 2016 #8
I frame those who disagree with me the same way. LanternWaste Jun 2016 #18
Because he tells them things they want to hear, even when they're not true. Donald Ian Rankin Jun 2016 #10
If Bernie has rallies with over 60 bazillion people how come he doesn't get as many votes? Happyhippychick Jun 2016 #11
Because a whole lot of people don't think she'd be the weaker candidate onenote Jun 2016 #12
Because more Democrats are voting for her in the primaries. MineralMan Jun 2016 #14
What till you see the GE... HumanityExperiment Jun 2016 #29
Oh, I'll be around for that, you can be sure. MineralMan Jun 2016 #37
principle HumanityExperiment Jun 2016 #48
The Democratic Party in action Meteor Man Jun 2016 #54
Because Americans are addicted to war and trickle down. nt JEB Jun 2016 #15
Her turn. I don't know why they bothered with a primary. Vinca Jun 2016 #16
That's why no other credible establishment Democrat challenged her. libdem4life Jun 2016 #31
Why did Bernie get beaten so decisively? redstateblues Jun 2016 #41
Beaten decisively? Meteor Man Jun 2016 #52
If it wasn't for the party elites (superdelegates), it would be nearly even. Vinca Jun 2016 #62
Uh. Not really. It was a larger margin than 08 redstateblues Jun 2016 #69
Cheese Sandwich—It isn't difficult to understand. CobaltBlue Jun 2016 #17
I love how on both sides, nobody really wants to tackle climate change. DookDook Jun 2016 #47
Those graphs have a huge caveat: the public does not know Bernie and the Repubs have not defined him LonePirate Jun 2016 #20
In case you've missed it, HRC's numbers JUST DROPPED. Ken Burch Jun 2016 #24
You must be one of those partisans convinced Bernie's numbers will never fall below Hillary's. LonePirate Jun 2016 #25
Bernie is getting swamped in national polls redstateblues Jun 2016 #42
They can't have it both ways. If he was not known, libdem4life Jun 2016 #35
What's that George Carlin observation bvf Jun 2016 #21
Hahaha! nt arikara Jun 2016 #33
LOL!!!!! zappaman Jun 2016 #22
Seems to me "class" is in short supply here. libdem4life Jun 2016 #36
The same people who dismiss these GE polls SheenaR Jun 2016 #27
Because I have a trailer of stone we picked out of the Purveyor Jun 2016 #28
Hillary will be elected RandySF Jun 2016 #30
"Since early April, Clinton's lead over Bernie Sanders among Democrats has grown steadily." riversedge Jun 2016 #32
Maybe it's because you don't believe in democracy. Hillary has millions more votes than Sanders. Trust Buster Jun 2016 #39
Because your premise has been roundly rejected by most Democrats. And, Lil Missy Jun 2016 #40
a pacifist is incapable of protecting america will never be elected president beachbum bob Jun 2016 #43
President Elizabeth Dole. She was way ahead at one point. blm Jun 2016 #44
Let me one up you MyNameGoesHere Jun 2016 #45
Clinton is hands down the candidacy of strength. Sanders hasn't been vetted and would be seabeyond Jun 2016 #46
Because Sanders ran a poor campaign brush Jun 2016 #49
Because it worked out great for President Gore/Kerry Sky Masterson Jun 2016 #51
The polls being cited by the Sanders supporters are worthless because Sanders has not been vetted Gothmog Jun 2016 #55
Democrats have deliberately & on purpose voted for Hillary Clinton...n/t asuhornets Jun 2016 #59
Disagree... Mike Nelson Jun 2016 #60
Because they were told to, and like good authoritarians they do as they are told. [n/t] Maedhros Jun 2016 #63
The weaker candidate is the one losing by almost 3 million votes taught_me_patience Jun 2016 #65
weaker in the general election is what I'm talking about. Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #71
Republicans called Obama "the black power communist Muslim from Kenya". How did that work out? imagine2015 Jun 2016 #70
I have no idea why so many democrats are supporting the weaker candidate. ContinentalOp Jun 2016 #73
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