Pew Poll: Obama 50 (+3), Romney 47

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9. Unlikely voters USUALLY vote too

Pew may be the best poll. They spend a ton, $60,000 to $100,000 per poll. Kohut ran Gallup before he moved to Pew. Interestingly they once took actual registered voters from official registration lists, polled them, then checked to see if they actually had voted. They found that MOST of those polled who said they were NOT going to vote did in fact vote. And of course some who said they were going to vote did not vote. So polls where results limited to likely voters are screwed up. The best prediction would be to weight likely voters AND unlikely voters. The internal polls of campaigns do this but public polls limited only to likely voters do ot. So PEW finds O leading by a bigger margin with registered voters than with likely voters. The best guess should be between the two.