NC raw data ( final early vote tally ) [View all]

[MyNameIsKhan]

Last edited Mon Nov 5, 2012, 06:28 PM - Edit history (4)

Some terms to understand before you read following data.
Total counties in NC: 100
Total Obama friendly counties: 35 ( Here Pres Obama won in 2008 finally vote tally )
Total R friendly counties: 65
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New Data starts here
Total registered voters in Nov 2012: 6631904
Total registered voters in Nov 2008: 6233330
Total number of votes in Nov 2008 election: 4233088
Voting population: 67.91%

As of Nov 2012
Total registered D's : 2861950 -> Net change from Nov 2008: 11971
Total registered R's : 2047916 -> Net change from Nov 2008: 53422
Total registered I's : 1702972 -> Net change from Nov 2008: 317485
Total new voters: 382878

O vs R in the Pool is 60/40 due to demographics and changes in Obama friendly 35 counties

Total Early Votes in 2012: 2,738,943
Obama Margin in Early Votes extrapolated from 2008 county wins and 2012 polling: 59/41 ( Refer to High Point Univ, PPP polls )
Obama Margin on Election day votes based on 2008 actual results: 39/61
Approx total Obama early Votes: 1615976

Approx total 2012 votes (6631904 x 67.91%): 4503726
Remiain votes on Nov 6th: 1764783
Approx Obama votes on election day (1764783 x 39%): 688265
Total Obama votes on election day: 2304241 ( 51.11 % or win by 52k votes)


You see margin or error is little but we have great ground game and plan is to hit 2% additional D voters...

We will NC by 25-75k votes tomorrow

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2012 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 2091583
2008 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 1994144

2008 total votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 3174651

2008 Obama Early voting advantage 64/36 ( extrapolated based on final win margins )
2008 Obama total voting advantage in 35 friendly counties 60/40 ( based on correct data )
2012 Obama early voting advantage 35 friendly counties 64.266/35.7 ( extrapolated based on 2008 final win margins )

----> Pres Obama running ahead of 2008 totals but this also means many R voters have voted early, Obama is winning on demographics 60/40, which means we are up additional 50k votes here.

2012 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636741
2008 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636625

---> Here no early votes change in 65 R friendly counties

2008 Total votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 1058437
Pres Obama finally tally in republican counties 39.5/60.5 ( this is based on final vote tally )

2000 Census population increase 21.4%
Population is divided into 15-25% and the ones where population decreased

Top Obama friendly 35 counties part of 15-25% increase = 18
Total 35 counties where population decreased = 0
Total R counties part of 15-25% increase = 14
Total R counties that lost population = 7


PRESIDENT OBAMA IS OUTPERFORMING 2008 NUMBERS AND WE WILL WIN NC ON TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT ULTIMATELY WE WILL BE ON TOP BY 25-75k VOTES


Here is the link to my sheet

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2TJUJ43Q0JKQ2xacVhFbG9idkE