Bernie Wins California!

[2banon]

5. This article offers an excellent analysis of the California electorate

Thank you so much Meteor Man..

The coalition Sanders has assembled in California, and the way he’s campaigned in the state, is a sneak preview of the next generation of liberal politics, in a state that’s always seen as a bellwether for the rest of the nation. In a sense, the final vote tally really doesn’t matter—because, in the most important and lasting ways, Sanders has already won California.

California is a liberal state, but it’s also a “machine” state: The labor federation’s preferred candidates, or the Democrats with high name recognition, are typically quite successful. The state is so massive that organizing on the ground can prove impossible. So can encouraging higher turnout among normally less-reliable voting groups.

This all made Hillary Clinton look like the perfect candidate for California. She garnered all the important endorsements, including governor and one-time bitter rival Jerry Brown. She certainly has the name ID. And she’s had an edge throughout the Democratic primary season with minority voters—which bodes well for a majority-minority state. A year ago this time, Clinton was up on Sanders in the well-respected Field Poll by a rather intimidating margin: 66-9.

But recent enhancements to voter registration laws have fostered political participation in California. Diligent work by progressives in 2012 to mobilize young and minority voters helped save the state, in fact, when they turned out to pass a budget-balancing tax hike on people making over $500,000 a year. (Don’t believe the Jerry Brown hagiographies; it was progressives, who forced Brown to place a winnable initiative on the ballot, who really primed California for its turnaround.) In just the first three months of this year, nearly 1 million voters registered—most of them Democratic, with big spikes for Latinos and young voters.

Those new voters have changed the composition of California’s electorate—and they’ve helped turn the Sanders-Clinton contest into, well, a contest. The most accurate polls statewide show the race a virtual tie; the Field Poll puts Clinton at 45 percent and Sanders at 43.

Sanders hasn’t just shown up to greet Californians and then jetted out. With a robust volunteer base, he’s been able to muster a statewide ground game, in contrast to most Democrats who prefer to run up the score in California’s urban metropolises. Clinton is still winning the Central Valley, but Sanders is keeping pace enough to remain competitive overall, thanks to a strong advantage in the Bay Area.

What is more striking is how the demographic splits we’ve seen across the country in the primaries aren’t translating to California. Sanders is only losing the Latino vote in the Field Poll 46-42. The African-American vote, while in favor of Clinton, is not the blowout we’ve seen elsewhere (57-36), and Sanders is winning the “Asian-American/other” category, which is actually bigger than the black vote (there are twice as many Asian-Americans as African-Americans in California), by a healthy margin.

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