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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: NC raw data ( final early vote tally ) [View all]Blackhatjack
(11,061 posts)53. IIRC Obama won NC in 2008 by just 14,000 votes
As a member of the Obama voter protection team in 2008, I was at the last voting precinct to close on election night in NC due to a glitch earlier in the day --the Precinct Chairperson was driven to the polling place by her son with the blank voting ballots in the trunk. She got out forgetting about the ballots and he drove off to work. We stayed until blank ballots were delivered and every person who was in line to vote was able to vote.
We knew it was going to be close and every vote could be critical. As I recall the final count was Obama by 14,000 votes in a state with millions of cast votes.
This time voter protection people will have to be vigilant to ensure that all votes are properly cast and counted, as any variance could change the outcome given how close the voting is expected to be.
I will not be surprised if NC takes several days to determine the eventual winner. We have early voting, history of strong absentee voting (especially Repubs), home to several military bases which will produce votes to be counted days after election day, and lots of precincts that use electronic voting machines that scan paper ballots which have to be calibrated and checked to be sure the totals produced are accurate.
For these and other reasons NC is likely not to be a quick decision. Let's hope Obama does not need us to top 270 electoral votes needed to win. However, if NC becomes the linchpin for the winner, we could hold up declaration of a winner for several days --and those who worked so hard to put Obama over the top in NC will deserve tremendous credit.
We knew it was going to be close and every vote could be critical. As I recall the final count was Obama by 14,000 votes in a state with millions of cast votes.
This time voter protection people will have to be vigilant to ensure that all votes are properly cast and counted, as any variance could change the outcome given how close the voting is expected to be.
I will not be surprised if NC takes several days to determine the eventual winner. We have early voting, history of strong absentee voting (especially Repubs), home to several military bases which will produce votes to be counted days after election day, and lots of precincts that use electronic voting machines that scan paper ballots which have to be calibrated and checked to be sure the totals produced are accurate.
For these and other reasons NC is likely not to be a quick decision. Let's hope Obama does not need us to top 270 electoral votes needed to win. However, if NC becomes the linchpin for the winner, we could hold up declaration of a winner for several days --and those who worked so hard to put Obama over the top in NC will deserve tremendous credit.
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Gravis says that the Republicans are up by 9. Silver says 80% Romney probability
grantcart
Nov 2012
#2
As far as Nate is concerned, his data is based on polls and some state internals
MyNameIsKhan
Nov 2012
#5
A predictive model that is accurate for Hawaii and Utah but cannot get it close in NC
grantcart
Nov 2012
#12
This is exactly why the Obama campaign sent Bill Clinton today & Michelle Obama tomorrow. nt
Lex
Nov 2012
#20
Wow, Iowa, FL, Nevada, and NC Dems have done awesome job of Early Voting. Come on Ohio, do us proud!
VirginiaTarheel
Nov 2012
#26
thanks, great analysis,we now have a visual template,this will booster our confidence n\t
-LOKI -BAD FOR YA
Nov 2012
#54