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Blackhatjack

(11,061 posts)
53. IIRC Obama won NC in 2008 by just 14,000 votes
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:29 AM
Nov 2012
As a member of the Obama voter protection team in 2008, I was at the last voting precinct to close on election night in NC due to a glitch earlier in the day --the Precinct Chairperson was driven to the polling place by her son with the blank voting ballots in the trunk. She got out forgetting about the ballots and he drove off to work. We stayed until blank ballots were delivered and every person who was in line to vote was able to vote.

We knew it was going to be close and every vote could be critical. As I recall the final count was Obama by 14,000 votes in a state with millions of cast votes.

This time voter protection people will have to be vigilant to ensure that all votes are properly cast and counted, as any variance could change the outcome given how close the voting is expected to be.

I will not be surprised if NC takes several days to determine the eventual winner. We have early voting, history of strong absentee voting (especially Repubs), home to several military bases which will produce votes to be counted days after election day, and lots of precincts that use electronic voting machines that scan paper ballots which have to be calibrated and checked to be sure the totals produced are accurate.

For these and other reasons NC is likely not to be a quick decision. Let's hope Obama does not need us to top 270 electoral votes needed to win. However, if NC becomes the linchpin for the winner, we could hold up declaration of a winner for several days --and those who worked so hard to put Obama over the top in NC will deserve tremendous credit.

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And THAT is how you do an "inside baseball" political post. Robb Nov 2012 #1
Gravis says that the Republicans are up by 9. Silver says 80% Romney probability grantcart Nov 2012 #2
As far as Nate is concerned, his data is based on polls and some state internals MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #5
A predictive model that is accurate for Hawaii and Utah but cannot get it close in NC grantcart Nov 2012 #12
I agree but in my view early voting as large as in NC MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #14
I agree 100% grantcart Nov 2012 #24
North Carolina GOTV. I've never seen anything like this before. David Zephyr Nov 2012 #61
Welcome to DU, MyNameIsKhan! calimary Nov 2012 #49
Gravis says? Wednesdays Nov 2012 #36
Gravis is cooking numbers like Meth MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #41
100 Counties in NC VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #3
Hmm, I see 99 in my excel sheet... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #4
You John2 Nov 2012 #18
thanks for pointing out.... I fixed it. MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #21
yep TalkingDog Nov 2012 #15
Actually my excel sheet has 100 sorry for the error MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #19
No worries. Just trying to help. TalkingDog Nov 2012 #47
this is what DU such a crazy place. Every thing gets checked and rechecked. grantcart Nov 2012 #25
Yes I got to know today MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #27
Great work, Khan! ncgrits Nov 2012 #6
Thank you! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #8
Great info amuse bouche Nov 2012 #7
Thgank you! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #40
nice work, much appreciated! But how did decreased pollution get in there.... flowomo Nov 2012 #9
Thanks for the check! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #10
proof I read your whole analysis... flowomo Nov 2012 #16
We welcome you and your math skills to DU! DonRedwood Nov 2012 #11
Thank you! I love this forum.... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #17
Excellent work VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #13
Thank you! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #42
This is exactly why the Obama campaign sent Bill Clinton today & Michelle Obama tomorrow. nt Lex Nov 2012 #20
Yup! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #45
It's the same type of numbers in Iowa... CoffeeCat Nov 2012 #22
Wow, Iowa, FL, Nevada, and NC Dems have done awesome job of Early Voting. Come on Ohio, do us proud! VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #26
OH has done well, except the CUA county, thats our vote bank MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #43
Damn nice job. Thanks. russspeakeasy Nov 2012 #23
K&R nt ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #28
thx! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #44
Wow! Amazing Analysis Cane4Dems Nov 2012 #29
Thank you.... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #39
This data Avon Barksdale Nov 2012 #30
From many sources MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #31
Alright Avon Barksdale Nov 2012 #33
Welcome to DU! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #52
Welcome to DU! ellisonz Nov 2012 #32
Bravo, Hooray, Well Done, Kudos!!!! zwyziec Nov 2012 #34
Thank you very much! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #37
I've got swing state envy, BAD. 12AngryBorneoWildmen Nov 2012 #35
Well me too! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #38
You're giving ACID a bad name. nt 12AngryBorneoWildmen Nov 2012 #46
yes how about NITRIC ACID MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #48
I think the EV Dem difference is because of Voter Reg and Early SaveAmerica Nov 2012 #50
Thank you! MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #51
IIRC Obama won NC in 2008 by just 14,000 votes Blackhatjack Nov 2012 #53
Lets hope we can win this... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #59
Interesting post. Thanks. n/t NCarolinawoman Nov 2012 #60
thanks, great analysis,we now have a visual template,this will booster our confidence n\t -LOKI -BAD FOR YA Nov 2012 #54
gotv! struggle4progress Nov 2012 #55
New data added MyNameIsKhan Nov 2012 #56
Now let's win this thing! ffr Nov 2012 #57
Read your numbers marions ghost Nov 2012 #58
K&R. Great report! Go North Carolina!!!!! David Zephyr Nov 2012 #62
Wow, thanks for all the work you sufrommich Nov 2012 #63
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