2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Election lawsuit happening now- Exit poll results [View all]KULawHawk
(97 posts)It's the worst kept secret that the entire thing has been rigged to crown her and nobody would say otherwise with a straight face.
The Primaries: Hillary wins the lottery
Bernie Sanders exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV. The probability P that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.
P = 1 in 76.8 BILLION = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,0.025,true)
The Margin of Error (MoE) is based on the number of respondents and the vote shares:
MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N), where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents, 1.3 is the exit poll cluster factor adjustment. There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE.
The probability of fraud is calculated using the Normal distribution. The probability is based on the difference (DIFF) between the exit poll share (EP) and recorded share (RS) less the MoE. If DIFF=MoE, the probability is 97.5%.
P = normdist (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true)
Probability of voter fraud :
99.999999999999%
Chances that his vote totals would be so much less than the exiting polling in 11 states:
1 in 76,829,636,415
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com
About the Author:
Richard Charnin is a graduate from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. After college, Richard accepted a job as a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacture, including development on the lunar module.
Charnin later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and a PhD in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973).
In 1976, Richard was hired by a Wall Street firm as Managing Developer of Corporate Finance Quantitative Applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank that was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978.
With the arrival of personal computers in 1982, he was tasked with the conversion and updating of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs to interface, including Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets - and years later for Excel.
After starting his own business as an independent software consultant, Charnin specialized in the creation and advanced tools for quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations.
Published works include:
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy: A mathematical analysis