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KULawHawk

(97 posts)
43. Systemic and wide...
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 02:26 PM
Jun 2016

It's the worst kept secret that the entire thing has been rigged to crown her and nobody would say otherwise with a straight face.


The Primaries: Hillary wins the lottery


Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV. The probability P that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.

P = 1 in 76.8 BILLION = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,0.025,true)

The Margin of Error (MoE) is based on the number of respondents and the vote shares:
MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N), where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents, 1.3 is the exit poll cluster factor adjustment. There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE.

The probability of fraud is calculated using the Normal distribution. The probability is based on the difference (DIFF) between the exit poll share (EP) and recorded share (RS) less the MoE. If DIFF=MoE, the probability is 97.5%.

P = normdist (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true)


Probability of voter fraud :

99.999999999999%

Chances that his vote totals would be so much less than the exiting polling in 11 states:

1 in 76,829,636,415



https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com

About the Author:

Richard Charnin is a graduate from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. After college, Richard accepted a job as a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacture, including development on the lunar module.

Charnin later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and a PhD in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973).

In 1976, Richard was hired by a Wall Street firm as Managing Developer of Corporate Finance Quantitative Applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank that was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978.

With the arrival of personal computers in 1982, he was tasked with the conversion and updating of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs to interface, including Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets - and years later for Excel.

After starting his own business as an independent software consultant, Charnin specialized in the creation and advanced tools for quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations.

Published works include:

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy: A mathematical analysis

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

This crap has grown very, very old. tonyt53 Jun 2016 #1
Sorry. Gregorian Jun 2016 #2
Exactly. And that's why lawsuits are necessary. Thanks. nilram Jun 2016 #100
Do Sanders supporters get tire of losing these bogus lawsuits? Gothmog Jun 2016 #3
" My lawyer friend tells me frivolous complaints are a form of fraud." DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2016 #13
The recent California lawsuit was a joke and this lawsuit sounds equally bogus Gothmog Jun 2016 #22
Vexatious litigation. DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2016 #29
Start listening a 1:43:19 bkkyosemite Jun 2016 #4
This message was self-deleted by its author cyberpj Jun 2016 #10
You mean exit polls leftynyc Jun 2016 #5
so your theory is that people who voted for Hillary lied to exit poll takers GreatGazoo Jun 2016 #15
I have no idea leftynyc Jun 2016 #17
No, my theory is exit polls aren't accurately accounting for early voter demographics. moriah Jun 2016 #45
Individual polling stations report their own numbers AgingAmerican Jun 2016 #113
No pollsters outside of my station on election day -- had to bust my rump to get there before .... moriah Jun 2016 #114
Repubs were within throughout the season SheenaR Jun 2016 #115
And don't count absentee and mail in votes? Renew Deal Jun 2016 #47
There are many reasons leftynyc Jun 2016 #56
I don't suppose you could give us a few details about the racketeering, could you? xynthee Jun 2016 #6
Yes, I am terribly convinced by a video of a video on a whitescreen Tarc Jun 2016 #7
This message was self-deleted by its author cyberpj Jun 2016 #8
Cool, another lawsuit nt firebrand80 Jun 2016 #9
And when reputable lawyers get tired of being laughed out of court, there's Orly Taitz stevenleser Jun 2016 #11
"All the hiding is over..it's all coming out" Latino's and AA votes were stolen according to bkkyosemite Jun 2016 #12
Oh. My. God. This is stunning!!! A lawsuit and citizen-based exit poll in CA. Cliff said this was JudyM Jun 2016 #14
Can you provide a precise Retrograde Jun 2016 #16
Fair points, except.. KULawHawk Jun 2016 #35
I've only listened to ~15 minutes so far starting from 1:46:00... MinnesotaRob Jun 2016 #37
Exit polls have a very high margin of error and are expensive Gothmog Jun 2016 #61
Funny, Germany considers exit polls the gold standard for detecting election fraud... Peace Patriot Jun 2016 #101
The ignorance of the American public on election integrity has been carefully cultivated. Enthusiast Jun 2016 #105
More Election Austerity... Dont call me Shirley Jun 2016 #109
supposedly being filed today.. think they'll report it? Voice for Peace Jun 2016 #84
not conspiracy. repeat. not a conspiracy. hopemountain Jun 2016 #98
Wrong forum, please repost. tritsofme Jun 2016 #18
It is rather obvious that many here don't care how they win as long as they win. nt Live and Learn Jun 2016 #19
Why bother with actual voting? Just use exit polls! Adrahil Jun 2016 #20
Are you kidding me, a "citizen exit poll"? Lord Magus Jun 2016 #21
The whole press conference is equally insande Gothmog Jun 2016 #23
Actually it's more informitative than anything else. Duckfan Jun 2016 #96
People will say anything to get some of these citizen exit poll wackos out of their face Renew Deal Jun 2016 #27
Is there a copy of this lawsuit anywhere? And who exactly are they suing? onenote Jun 2016 #24
They're suing the media for being complicit in the election fraud crimes. Gregorian Jun 2016 #25
"The media" isn't an entity that can be sued. So which specific media outlets are being sued. onenote Jun 2016 #26
Sue 'em all and let God sort it out! randome Jun 2016 #39
LOL Cali_Democrat Jun 2016 #79
4 major networks, Associated Press and CNN. nt nc4bo Jun 2016 #48
And what are they alleged to have done that isn't protected by the First Amendment? onenote Jun 2016 #49
Can't remember the exact wording so forgive me. nc4bo Jun 2016 #51
So by deciding not to spend money conducting exit polls late in the campaign onenote Jun 2016 #76
I have some Pepto for that bellyache. nc4bo Jun 2016 #78
No, by not releasing the actual results of their exit poll but Blue Meany Jun 2016 #104
They very clearly don't have ANY bases covered. Lord Magus Jun 2016 #28
But it's CRIME!! GulfCoast66 Jun 2016 #32
Your faith in these idiots is so cute and adorable Gothmog Jun 2016 #63
Exit Polls are Conducted by... jamese777 Jun 2016 #30
Justice Souter on RICO and the First Amendment onenote Jun 2016 #42
Frivolous Lawsuits Are a Shame on Bernie's Supporters. MineralMan Jun 2016 #31
I'm a supporter and knew none of this. I feel zero shame. floriduck Jun 2016 #58
The Shame lies with the cheater, vote suppressor and election fraudster. Of which Bernie is innocent Dont call me Shirley Jun 2016 #110
Maybe they can hire Orly Taitz as their lawyer, nt geek tragedy Jun 2016 #33
perhaps you could write out the specific charges from the video? Fast Walker 52 Jun 2016 #34
Another example : KULawHawk Jun 2016 #36
There's also articles covering it at... KULawHawk Jun 2016 #38
his unsupported allegation are the only way to reach his conclusion... LanternWaste Jun 2016 #40
Oh boy PepperHarlan Jun 2016 #41
Systemic and wide... KULawHawk Jun 2016 #43
But math only applies when it is in favor of Clinton. Betty Karlson Jun 2016 #46
So if the claim is that the exit poll data overstated the actual results onenote Jun 2016 #50
Media doesn't do exiting polling. KULawHawk Jun 2016 #60
I'm still searching for an explanation of what the lawsuit is alleging as a violation onenote Jun 2016 #74
To look at the KULawHawk Jun 2016 #80
So are they trying to prove the reported exit polls are too high or too low? onenote Jun 2016 #81
The exit polls indicate KULawHawk Jun 2016 #83
So how does that make the exit poll takers guilty of anything? onenote Jun 2016 #85
I already said. KULawHawk Jun 2016 #86
In what legal universe can you name someone as a defendant simply to get access to their information onenote Jun 2016 #87
Show me the complaint. KULawHawk Jun 2016 #90
That's my point - without a copy of the complaint its hard to assess whether this suit makes sense onenote Jun 2016 #91
Until filed then naturally everything has yet KULawHawk Jun 2016 #92
yes. I've seen this. And if the plaintiffs think the Edison polling onenote Jun 2016 #93
It's not the only lawsuit. KULawHawk Jun 2016 #94
And you still need a cause of action against the folks being sued onenote Jun 2016 #95
Significance of the data incongruity : KULawHawk Jun 2016 #44
oregon is all mail in ballots, hence hopemountain Jun 2016 #99
Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2016 #106
10 days left for this crap MFM008 Jun 2016 #52
it was not crap in 2004. nc4bo Jun 2016 #54
Or 2000 nadinbrzezinski Jun 2016 #77
I love Bob and Cliff Duckfan Jun 2016 #97
I wish exit poles had sway in courts larkrake Jun 2016 #53
They do KULawHawk Jun 2016 #82
Nothing to see here, same old line without proof as usual, Thinkingabout Jun 2016 #55
So you think an exit poll where they ask ever 5th voter, and take only those that volunteer to Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #57
You must be young. Shakes head. libdem4life Jun 2016 #65
So you actually do believe that exit polls are more accurate that counting every vote. Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #66
They have been reliable markers for decades. libdem4life Jun 2016 #67
Actually, they haven't. Exit Polls: Why They So Often Mislead Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #68
Sorry...doesn't explain the vast difference between candidates in the libdem4life Jun 2016 #71
Exit polls are not the accurate accounting that urban legend makes them. Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #72
Ok, then. Maybe HRC people don't like reporters... libdem4life Jun 2016 #73
Or the polls are no more accurate or scientific than an internet poll. Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #75
Are you willing to swear (in a court of law) every vote has been accurately counted? Hiraeth Jun 2016 #107
CALL BERNIE SANDERS RIGHT FUCKING NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! randome Jun 2016 #59
...and ask him if his refrigerator's running? brooklynite Jun 2016 #69
This reminds me: how's that "People's Exit Poll" plan coming along? brooklynite Jun 2016 #70
Yeah, like how bloggers are 'journalists' and citizen pollsters are 'reliable'. randome Jun 2016 #88
no, to ask him how to turn off the caps-lock key DrDan Jun 2016 #102
The audio quality is terrible PepperHarlan Jun 2016 #62
In all my decades of voting, Exit Polls have almost always been very close libdem4life Jun 2016 #64
So Hillary is not the target, she's the victim. trudyco Jun 2016 #89
There is no more important issue than these 'TRADE SECRET' voting machines... Peace Patriot Jun 2016 #103
A YouTube video is not a lawsuit Freddie Stubbs Jun 2016 #108
This is true. nt Cali_Democrat Jun 2016 #111
Has any lawsuit actually been filed yet? Freddie Stubbs Jun 2016 #112
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