We are too over confident at DU

[FBaggins]

51. I just don't know.

The national polls show a dead heat.

Yes, the polls in the key states show the president leading comfortably enough, but something doesn't quite make sense. I can't figure out where Romney's "extra" support is to account for a national tie but a 2-4 point loss in OH/VA/NC/FL/etc. Has there been a huge Romney surge in CA that just doesn't show up because nobody is polling that race in CA?

Just look at 538's summary. I'm a huge Nate Silver fan and defended him here in 2010 (and was right) and again earlier this year as many turned against him... but the puzzling issue is right there on his front page. He takes all those state polls and rolls up a 2+ point lead nationally for the president. But the consensus of the national polls hasn't been 2+ points in our favor since before the first debate.

Either the national polls are wrong or the state polls are wrong (sometimes by the same pollsters).

The good news (and the reason I'm not TOO worried) is that there's plenty of room for the state polls to be "wrong" and still have a comfortable victory. So this is by no means a 50/50 proposition.

But I won't be comfortable until a couple early states show clear leads proving the polling to be accurate.

I figure either way I'll probably be up late drinking something.