2016 Postmortem

FBaggins

(28,705 posts)

80. Yep

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 01:50 PM

Nov 2012

And when the professionals who have done those polls for decades corrected for the unbalanced sample, people like our interlocutor immediately moved them into the "part of the conspiracy" camp... claiming that they were just tweaking the numbers to validate the election.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

132 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

We are too over confident at DU [View all] dennis4868 Nov 2012 OP

The Same Aggregators Who Accurately Predicted A Bush* Win In 04 Are Predicting An Obama Win Now./nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #1

People on DU getting overconfident has no effect on most Americans. JRLeft Nov 2012 #2

Why Can't Folks Let Other Folks Be Happy And Cheerful? DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #19

sorry dennis4868 Nov 2012 #23

Respectfully If Folks Thought Kerry Had The Momentum In 04 They Were Woefully Misinformed DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #29

I remember watching Kerry's last rally LuckyStrykes Nov 2012 #102

not about not being happy... it's about the idiotic posts about progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #27

In 04 I Was Shocked For About Six Hours Because Leaked Raw Exit Polls Were Wrong DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #31

I was hopeful for Kerry Proud Liberal Dem Nov 2012 #40

Same Thing Happened In 00 With Leaked Raw Exit Polls In 00 DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #42

I was fairly unengaged in that election for some reason Proud Liberal Dem Nov 2012 #60

Having Met Al And Tipper I Was Sufficiently Engaged DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #70

After the debacles of 2000 and 2004, I won't start dancing until Romney gives his concession speech Arkansas Granny Nov 2012 #54

Same here. Mad_Dem_X Nov 2012 #98

2004 was the worst thing ever? demwing Nov 2012 #114

Amen. easttexaslefty Nov 2012 #121

A Romney presidency would be horrible demwing Nov 2012 #128

. reflection Nov 2012 #124

ty demwing Nov 2012 #129

I agree it's no fun when the shoe's on the other foot LiberalElite Nov 2012 #44

Oh I do too, it is become a sickness. JRLeft Nov 2012 #125

They're like jilted lovers and need to spill EmeraldCityGrl Nov 2012 #131

You're so right. kstewart33 Nov 2012 #3

I think we are absolutely right to be confident about 270. sadbear Nov 2012 #4

IM not seeing that here I see more DEBBIE DOWNER posts on hear you casn shake a stick at bigdarryl Nov 2012 #5

I agree; it ain't over 'til it's over. Btw, don't get mad, but it's 'too' in this case, not 'to'. codjh9 Nov 2012 #6

I'm curious as to what momentum Romney has? Lone_Star_Dem Nov 2012 #7

Romney is keeping this relatively close dennis4868 Nov 2012 #10

Ah, that's not momentum, though. Lone_Star_Dem Nov 2012 #16

That's Romentum demwing Nov 2012 #110

Totally agree. buckyblue Nov 2012 #53

Nate said it best jcgoldie Nov 2012 #8

I agree. Third Doctor Nov 2012 #9

OMG you just proved why polls show Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #86

Agreed. It is damn close, GOTV!!!!!!! emulatorloo Nov 2012 #11

Thanks! dennis4868 Nov 2012 #14

ONOZ Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #12

I was here in 2004, and in the aftermath of 2000. You wouldn't be so cavalier if you'd been here too progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #22

Not sure what you are talking about... dennis4868 Nov 2012 #25

Preach... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #33

From a "handwringer" LiberalElite Nov 2012 #47

if you're a handwringer Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #85

Yes, and why are we comparing John Kerry's campaign to Obama's? Kerry's road was much harder Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #81

It's their job to appear confident. Arkana Nov 2012 #13

That post makes no sense. Awesome. Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #87

Funny. I find that most on here are being too cynical. nt Comrade_McKenzie Nov 2012 #15

It doesn't matter what we say or do here. immoderate Nov 2012 #17

It actually does matter.. to US. 2004 election was ugly and painful here. nt progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #21

EXACTLY! dennis4868 Nov 2012 #26

It certainly was - I did GOTV in Pennsylvania LiberalElite Nov 2012 #55

In 2004 people on DU were posting pics of their champagne on ice. progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #18

Here Are The Final Nat'l And State Polls From 04. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #24

Crickets... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #32

Exit polls showed Kerry winning Ohio and Florida, as expected, allrevvedup Nov 2012 #48

I Already Addressed The Exit Poll Thing. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #56

The "exit poll thing" IS the thing. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #59

But you're still uninformed apparently Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #88

Lots of people here are spewing baloney. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #90

If You Just Look At The Data Bush* Was Doing A Teeny Bit Better Than O At The Nat'l Level DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #99

The National Exit Poll showed Kerry at 51.7% allrevvedup Nov 2012 #107

The people who would have had to "tamper" with it are the people who DO the national exit poll. FBaggins Nov 2012 #108

That's a question Warren Mitofsky got asked a lot allrevvedup Nov 2012 #109

Untrue. FBaggins Nov 2012 #113

"He refused, consistently, to release precinct-level polling data from Ohio...." allrevvedup Nov 2012 #116

Lol! Think anyone missed that you dodged the issue? FBaggins Nov 2012 #117

What issue? You're having a conversation with yourself allrevvedup Nov 2012 #118

Now we're pretending that you answered? FBaggins Nov 2012 #119

RCP Avg - Ohio 2004 - Bush 2.1% LeftInTX Nov 2012 #46

yep Dr Claw Nov 2012 #75

Not Quite RobinA Nov 2012 #83

WELL SAID! dennis4868 Nov 2012 #30

I'm Not Trying To Be An Ass DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #34

No dennis4868 Nov 2012 #39

See Post Thirty Six./nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #45

If The Fix Is In, Why Vote? That Would Seem To Just MakeThe Pain Worse. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #50

If the fix is in we need to challenge the results. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #58

You think it will hurt less if you aren't confident? Orangepeel Nov 2012 #127

I was around in '04 then I left and came back near 2006. Jennicut Nov 2012 #41

I remember last time I was so nervous and worried I was a wreck meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #20

Unfortunately I have to agree with you. CNN just reported latest polls: concluded dead heat nt JudyM Nov 2012 #28

Res Ipsa Loquitur DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #36

So ??!? FBaggins Nov 2012 #35

The Whole Argument In The OP Flows From A Faulty Premise DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #38

I just don't know. FBaggins Nov 2012 #51

Lot Of Research That Indicate Aggregated State Polls Are More Accurate Than National Polls DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #63

Can you point me to some? FBaggins Nov 2012 #73

Here's Something By Professor Wang: DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #74

I'll have to read through the second piece... FBaggins Nov 2012 #79

National polls are utterly irrelevant jeff47 Nov 2012 #97

I Largely Agree For The Reasons You Cited But I Expect Them To Roughly Converge/nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #101

Why should they converge? jeff47 Nov 2012 #104

Because they're supposed to model the same thing. FBaggins Nov 2012 #106

No, they're not jeff47 Nov 2012 #122

Because They Are Measuring The Same Universe. State Polls Are Measuring Just Individual Parts Of It DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #112

But they aren't measuring the same universe jeff47 Nov 2012 #123

Can you give some examples of those southern polls? FBaggins Nov 2012 #105

Wrong, exit polls showed Kerry WINNING Ohio and FL allrevvedup Nov 2012 #52

Maybe You Shold Have Read What I Wrote Before You Disrespected Me. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #57

What's the point of misleading people? allrevvedup Nov 2012 #61

That's A Different Argument That You're Entitled To DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #66

Exit polls are not the same thing as pre-election polling. FBaggins Nov 2012 #65

Right, exit polls are more accurate. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #69

No... they aren't. FBaggins Nov 2012 #77

Exit Polls Are Raw And Have A MOE Of 3% DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #76

Yep FBaggins Nov 2012 #80

"Footprints of Electoral Fraud: The November 2 Exit Poll Scam" allrevvedup Nov 2012 #82

How can they "misrepresent" the professionals? FBaggins Nov 2012 #89

So basically you have an ad hominem fallacy. Fail. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #91

Nope. But I'm not surprised that you missed that. FBaggins Nov 2012 #93

SSDD, okay. But if you don't mind I'll stick with the numbers allrevvedup Nov 2012 #95

Lol! FBaggins Nov 2012 #96

Charnin: "The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush" allrevvedup Nov 2012 #84

oh shut it... faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #37

Doubt it rock Nov 2012 #43

It doesn't surprise me to find you posting one more downer post WI_DEM Nov 2012 #49

Some people are happy being miserable, Kemo Sabe... A-Schwarzenegger Nov 2012 #62

I was pretty miserable on Nov. 3 2004 allrevvedup Nov 2012 #64

If you're miserable now, you like being miserable. A-Schwarzenegger Nov 2012 #67

I'm Getting Reamed In This Thread For Not Being Sufficiently Miserable DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #68

Again, some people are happy eating misery. A-Schwarzenegger Nov 2012 #71

No you're getting reamed for misrepresenting what happened in 2004. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #72

I Like Just About Any Candidate With A (D) After His Name DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #78

Voter suppression, stealing absentee ballots, uncertified software? Baitball Blogger Nov 2012 #92

Lions, and tigers, and bears, oh, my!!... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #94

I'm Hanging With Nate Silver AND ChiciB1 Nov 2012 #100

Newbie here... Caroline-Vivienne Nov 2012 #103

Welcome to DU, C.V.! AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #120

Thank you! Caroline-Vivienne Nov 2012 #132

Urgent Message For All Teapublicans pismoclam Nov 2012 #111

several polls show romney ahead or tied. overconfident? mgcgulfcoast Nov 2012 #115

Could You Please Point Me To The Data That Details Romney's Path To 270? DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #126

Sure you're not from FOX ... GeorgeGist Nov 2012 #130