2016 Postmortem

allrevvedup

(408 posts)

84. Charnin: "The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush"

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:01 PM

Nov 2012

The myth that the early 2004 exit polls were biased for Kerry is refuted by the National Exit Poll (NEP) timeline.

Kerry had 51% at 4pm (8,349 respondents). His exit poll share remained constant up to the final 13,660 respondents (51.7%).

The pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to have the Final NEP match the recorded vote.

Assuming that Kerry had 51.7% of 125.7 million votes cast, he won by nearly 6 million votes. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

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We are too over confident at DU [View all] dennis4868 Nov 2012 OP

The Same Aggregators Who Accurately Predicted A Bush* Win In 04 Are Predicting An Obama Win Now./nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #1

People on DU getting overconfident has no effect on most Americans. JRLeft Nov 2012 #2

Why Can't Folks Let Other Folks Be Happy And Cheerful? DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #19

sorry dennis4868 Nov 2012 #23

Respectfully If Folks Thought Kerry Had The Momentum In 04 They Were Woefully Misinformed DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #29

I remember watching Kerry's last rally LuckyStrykes Nov 2012 #102

not about not being happy... it's about the idiotic posts about progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #27

In 04 I Was Shocked For About Six Hours Because Leaked Raw Exit Polls Were Wrong DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #31

I was hopeful for Kerry Proud Liberal Dem Nov 2012 #40

Same Thing Happened In 00 With Leaked Raw Exit Polls In 00 DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #42

I was fairly unengaged in that election for some reason Proud Liberal Dem Nov 2012 #60

Having Met Al And Tipper I Was Sufficiently Engaged DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #70

After the debacles of 2000 and 2004, I won't start dancing until Romney gives his concession speech Arkansas Granny Nov 2012 #54

Same here. Mad_Dem_X Nov 2012 #98

2004 was the worst thing ever? demwing Nov 2012 #114

Amen. easttexaslefty Nov 2012 #121

A Romney presidency would be horrible demwing Nov 2012 #128

. reflection Nov 2012 #124

ty demwing Nov 2012 #129

I agree it's no fun when the shoe's on the other foot LiberalElite Nov 2012 #44

Oh I do too, it is become a sickness. JRLeft Nov 2012 #125

They're like jilted lovers and need to spill EmeraldCityGrl Nov 2012 #131

You're so right. kstewart33 Nov 2012 #3

I think we are absolutely right to be confident about 270. sadbear Nov 2012 #4

IM not seeing that here I see more DEBBIE DOWNER posts on hear you casn shake a stick at bigdarryl Nov 2012 #5

I agree; it ain't over 'til it's over. Btw, don't get mad, but it's 'too' in this case, not 'to'. codjh9 Nov 2012 #6

I'm curious as to what momentum Romney has? Lone_Star_Dem Nov 2012 #7

Romney is keeping this relatively close dennis4868 Nov 2012 #10

Ah, that's not momentum, though. Lone_Star_Dem Nov 2012 #16

That's Romentum demwing Nov 2012 #110

Totally agree. buckyblue Nov 2012 #53

Nate said it best jcgoldie Nov 2012 #8

I agree. Third Doctor Nov 2012 #9

OMG you just proved why polls show Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #86

Agreed. It is damn close, GOTV!!!!!!! emulatorloo Nov 2012 #11

Thanks! dennis4868 Nov 2012 #14

ONOZ Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #12

I was here in 2004, and in the aftermath of 2000. You wouldn't be so cavalier if you'd been here too progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #22

Not sure what you are talking about... dennis4868 Nov 2012 #25

Preach... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #33

From a "handwringer" LiberalElite Nov 2012 #47

if you're a handwringer Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #85

Yes, and why are we comparing John Kerry's campaign to Obama's? Kerry's road was much harder Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #81

It's their job to appear confident. Arkana Nov 2012 #13

That post makes no sense. Awesome. Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #87

Funny. I find that most on here are being too cynical. nt Comrade_McKenzie Nov 2012 #15

It doesn't matter what we say or do here. immoderate Nov 2012 #17

It actually does matter.. to US. 2004 election was ugly and painful here. nt progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #21

EXACTLY! dennis4868 Nov 2012 #26

It certainly was - I did GOTV in Pennsylvania LiberalElite Nov 2012 #55

In 2004 people on DU were posting pics of their champagne on ice. progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #18

Here Are The Final Nat'l And State Polls From 04. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #24

Crickets... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #32

Exit polls showed Kerry winning Ohio and Florida, as expected, allrevvedup Nov 2012 #48

I Already Addressed The Exit Poll Thing. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #56

The "exit poll thing" IS the thing. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #59

But you're still uninformed apparently Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #88

Lots of people here are spewing baloney. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #90

If You Just Look At The Data Bush* Was Doing A Teeny Bit Better Than O At The Nat'l Level DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #99

The National Exit Poll showed Kerry at 51.7% allrevvedup Nov 2012 #107

The people who would have had to "tamper" with it are the people who DO the national exit poll. FBaggins Nov 2012 #108

That's a question Warren Mitofsky got asked a lot allrevvedup Nov 2012 #109

Untrue. FBaggins Nov 2012 #113

"He refused, consistently, to release precinct-level polling data from Ohio...." allrevvedup Nov 2012 #116

Lol! Think anyone missed that you dodged the issue? FBaggins Nov 2012 #117

What issue? You're having a conversation with yourself allrevvedup Nov 2012 #118

Now we're pretending that you answered? FBaggins Nov 2012 #119

RCP Avg - Ohio 2004 - Bush 2.1% LeftInTX Nov 2012 #46

yep Dr Claw Nov 2012 #75

Not Quite RobinA Nov 2012 #83

WELL SAID! dennis4868 Nov 2012 #30

I'm Not Trying To Be An Ass DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #34

No dennis4868 Nov 2012 #39

See Post Thirty Six./nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #45

If The Fix Is In, Why Vote? That Would Seem To Just MakeThe Pain Worse. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #50

If the fix is in we need to challenge the results. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #58

You think it will hurt less if you aren't confident? Orangepeel Nov 2012 #127

I was around in '04 then I left and came back near 2006. Jennicut Nov 2012 #41

I remember last time I was so nervous and worried I was a wreck meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #20

Unfortunately I have to agree with you. CNN just reported latest polls: concluded dead heat nt JudyM Nov 2012 #28

Res Ipsa Loquitur DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #36

So ??!? FBaggins Nov 2012 #35

The Whole Argument In The OP Flows From A Faulty Premise DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #38

I just don't know. FBaggins Nov 2012 #51

Lot Of Research That Indicate Aggregated State Polls Are More Accurate Than National Polls DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #63

Can you point me to some? FBaggins Nov 2012 #73

Here's Something By Professor Wang: DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #74

I'll have to read through the second piece... FBaggins Nov 2012 #79

National polls are utterly irrelevant jeff47 Nov 2012 #97

I Largely Agree For The Reasons You Cited But I Expect Them To Roughly Converge/nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #101

Why should they converge? jeff47 Nov 2012 #104

Because they're supposed to model the same thing. FBaggins Nov 2012 #106

No, they're not jeff47 Nov 2012 #122

Because They Are Measuring The Same Universe. State Polls Are Measuring Just Individual Parts Of It DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #112

But they aren't measuring the same universe jeff47 Nov 2012 #123

Can you give some examples of those southern polls? FBaggins Nov 2012 #105

Wrong, exit polls showed Kerry WINNING Ohio and FL allrevvedup Nov 2012 #52

Maybe You Shold Have Read What I Wrote Before You Disrespected Me. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #57

What's the point of misleading people? allrevvedup Nov 2012 #61

That's A Different Argument That You're Entitled To DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #66

Exit polls are not the same thing as pre-election polling. FBaggins Nov 2012 #65

Right, exit polls are more accurate. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #69

No... they aren't. FBaggins Nov 2012 #77

Exit Polls Are Raw And Have A MOE Of 3% DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #76

Yep FBaggins Nov 2012 #80

"Footprints of Electoral Fraud: The November 2 Exit Poll Scam" allrevvedup Nov 2012 #82

How can they "misrepresent" the professionals? FBaggins Nov 2012 #89

So basically you have an ad hominem fallacy. Fail. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #91

Nope. But I'm not surprised that you missed that. FBaggins Nov 2012 #93

SSDD, okay. But if you don't mind I'll stick with the numbers allrevvedup Nov 2012 #95

Lol! FBaggins Nov 2012 #96

Charnin: "The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush" allrevvedup Nov 2012 #84

oh shut it... faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #37

Doubt it rock Nov 2012 #43

It doesn't surprise me to find you posting one more downer post WI_DEM Nov 2012 #49

Some people are happy being miserable, Kemo Sabe... A-Schwarzenegger Nov 2012 #62

I was pretty miserable on Nov. 3 2004 allrevvedup Nov 2012 #64

If you're miserable now, you like being miserable. A-Schwarzenegger Nov 2012 #67

I'm Getting Reamed In This Thread For Not Being Sufficiently Miserable DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #68

Again, some people are happy eating misery. A-Schwarzenegger Nov 2012 #71

No you're getting reamed for misrepresenting what happened in 2004. allrevvedup Nov 2012 #72

I Like Just About Any Candidate With A (D) After His Name DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #78

Voter suppression, stealing absentee ballots, uncertified software? Baitball Blogger Nov 2012 #92

Lions, and tigers, and bears, oh, my!!... OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #94

I'm Hanging With Nate Silver AND ChiciB1 Nov 2012 #100

Newbie here... Caroline-Vivienne Nov 2012 #103

Welcome to DU, C.V.! AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #120

Thank you! Caroline-Vivienne Nov 2012 #132

Urgent Message For All Teapublicans pismoclam Nov 2012 #111

several polls show romney ahead or tied. overconfident? mgcgulfcoast Nov 2012 #115

Could You Please Point Me To The Data That Details Romney's Path To 270? DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #126

Sure you're not from FOX ... GeorgeGist Nov 2012 #130