Do you think that Hillary will switch positions to being pro-TPP?

[karynnj]

81. TPP - yes, KXL- no

Obama has been fighting hard for the TPP. If there is a window where he has enough support to pass it, he will pass it. He fought hard to get the fast track that makes passage feasible.

Obama has denied the KXL pipeline and it is contrary to everything he wants his legacy to be on climate change. Not to mention, it would take a large price increase for oil for recovering the dirty tar sands oil to be profitable. Where approval was extremely likely when HRC left the State Department with a just completed study that pretty much would have been the basis for approval, times have changed.

In addition to the economics not being there, there was the huge oil spill on the regular Keystone (not KXL) this year. I can imagine that Obama will NOT want his name attached to having approved something that made the extraction of incredibly dirty oil more economically feasible. The Paris Climate accord, along with ACA and the Iran deal, is a major part of Obama's legacy. Allowing Keystone would tarnish the credit he deserves for allowing Kerry to work on climate deals.

Not to mention, in his statement, Kerry disputed what had been a key assumption of the State Department study. The study ASSUMED that the amount of oil to be extracted would be the same with or without the pipeline. However, as the pipeline would have lower the transportation cost, it would raise the threshold for the extraction cost that would still be economically viable.

One thing that suggests the Republicans have not dropped this is that House Oversight committee (chair is Chaffetz) has demanded Kerry appear to answer questions on the pipeline. Kerry, a lifelong environmentalist, was against the pipeline as a Senator and is completely unlikely to give anyone cover on this.