According to 538 Clinton's chances of winning the GE have plunged 17 points in 10 days

[Doctor Jack]

45. He's already explained why

He said that Clinton has a clear and fairly solid lead. The reason why is that its still early and anything less than a massive lead right now isn't considered to be a sure thing. His entire model is based on mathematical formulas that are very conservative, in that it refuses to say that a 5 point lead in July is insurmountable. Instead it has a lot of "lets wait and see" type of thinking behind it. However, the closer we get to the election, the more meaningful any lead in the polls will be. He says she is right around 4 or 5 points ahead right now. Obama was up by less than that in October of 2012 but was hovering around 90% in his model because of how late it was. The longer she maintains this lead the more her odds will increase.

He says that she has a pretty good lead over Trump but more time is going to have to pass before he says her lead is real and that is isn't going to fluctuate or fade. We are getting there but the middle of July isn't quite to that point yet.