2016 Postmortem

citood

(550 posts)

85. 5

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:01 PM

Jul 2016

The polls mean nothing - they are just an echo chamber for the pollster's assumptions...based on historical turnout models.

All that goes out the window with Trump, and its a 50/50 coin flip. We won't have any idea, until election day.

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On a scale of 0-10, how worried are you about Trump winning? [View all] mvd Jul 2016 OP

I would be around three as well. drray23 Jul 2016 #1

With that reactive ignoramus running, my needle's on 10 every day. piechartking Jul 2016 #2

Yep. nt kstewart33 Jul 2016 #23

1 or 2 DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 #3

We should have a great convention that provides a stark contrast to people mvd Jul 2016 #8

0-1 bigwillq Jul 2016 #4

Zero Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #5

Even Nate Silver wouldn't commit like that if the odds were 99.5% in HRC's favor. It's reckless. TheBlackAdder Jul 2016 #24

I gave my opinion. That's all Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #31

It leads one to believe there is a Democratic Bubble, impervious to non-Democratic events. TheBlackAdder Jul 2016 #36

People are free to believe whatever they want. nt Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #37

Yep, even if they spend all day trying to influence others that Trump is a non-threat. TheBlackAdder Jul 2016 #40

People are free to spend their days how they would like. Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #43

Does that apply to how we think DWS made things worse? ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #81

Yes. You are free to believe what you want. nt Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #82

7. There is a high probability, knowing how fickle and short-term memoried people are. TheBlackAdder Jul 2016 #6

0-1 DemonGoddess Jul 2016 #7

May you be correct and my fears unfounded. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #83

Last odds I saw were 2-1 in Clinton's favour, so 3.33. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Jul 2016 #9

8-9. I think we're in bigger danger then we think right now. nt liberalnarb Jul 2016 #10

I'm right there with you! Runningdawg Jul 2016 #65

+1000 smirkymonkey Jul 2016 #92

I agree. Now that we know that Trump is in cahoots w/ Putin TexasBushwhacker Jul 2016 #116

About a 5. SDJay Jul 2016 #11

I'm at 2, but it might tick up to a 3 ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2016 #12

Even as someone who strongly supported Sanders, I am hoping that mvd Jul 2016 #17

-4. MohRokTah Jul 2016 #13

Around a 2. Regardless of polling, etc I firmly believe Trump is going to implode Godhumor Jul 2016 #14

I started today with a 0 - now I am at 9 liberal N proud Jul 2016 #15

All it takes is a "Tom Ridge Code Red" or another document dump a week before the general. TheBlackAdder Jul 2016 #20

Exactly - same. nt auntpurl Jul 2016 #21

I am worried. serbbral Jul 2016 #16

4 youceyec Jul 2016 #18

5 - A 10 danger to the country and the world IF he is elected. A 0 danger if he is not elected pampango Jul 2016 #19

10 Johnny2X2X Jul 2016 #22

Pretty concerned...watching Bernie one_voice Jul 2016 #25

9 Jack Bone Jul 2016 #26

Have you been paying attention? stopbush Jul 2016 #33

Yeppers...I heard Hillary and Bernie speak today. Jack Bone Jul 2016 #60

5-6 Blue_Tires Jul 2016 #27

Zero, and I'm still taking bets. NaturalHigh Jul 2016 #28

7 - Yesterday I signed up to be a volunteer for Clinton, the RNC motivated me to do that. RAFisher Jul 2016 #29

I know of very vew white males who will vote for Hillary Utah_liberal Jul 2016 #130

Zero. stopbush Jul 2016 #30

5 CentralMass Jul 2016 #32

8. There are a lot of stupid voters out there buying the disaster/crisis he's pedaling. Shrike47 Jul 2016 #34

10 tallahasseedem Jul 2016 #35

I was about a 2 CanonRay Jul 2016 #38

Nine. He and his nutty supporters scare the crap out of me. nt DLevine Jul 2016 #39

I would put it at about a 4. I still think that Hillary will win but the latest analysis by Nate totodeinhere Jul 2016 #41

10 Onlooker Jul 2016 #42

10. I'm worried that the Russians have more up their sleeves. This was just a test balloon to eastwestdem Jul 2016 #44

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2016 #119

10! Tatiana Jul 2016 #45

5 izzybella Jul 2016 #96

Welcome to DU. fleabiscuit Jul 2016 #118

Hello bigwillq Jul 2016 #124

After Bernie's feeble endorsement of Clinton/Kaine just now, I'm up to 7. (nt) Paladin Jul 2016 #46

Feeble? I am watching it now. Nothing tepid or feeble about it ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #87

3. The electoral college may save us yeoman6987 Jul 2016 #47

I'm at a 7 now. I was at a 1 because I did not helpisontheway Jul 2016 #48

10 quitnesset Jul 2016 #49

I'm a 7. Celebrity is the most powerfull force in America. We elected The terminator TeamPooka Jul 2016 #50

9 - I gotta leave a hopeful point on the table aintitfunny Jul 2016 #51

7 Denis 11 Jul 2016 #52

10 nruthie Jul 2016 #53

I was a 3-after this am's Sanders Supporters, 'Lock her Up' protest-I am a 10 MichiganVote Jul 2016 #54

This is me exactly. But I wouldn't call them Sanders supporters. I'd call them Trump trolls. Squinch Jul 2016 #101

No offense but I just don't have the faith in that view that you have. MichiganVote Jul 2016 #113

None taken. Squinch Jul 2016 #114

1000 kestrel91316 Jul 2016 #55

10 oswaldactedalone Jul 2016 #56

Zero treestar Jul 2016 #57

After the response to Bernie's speech from his delegates auntpurl Jul 2016 #58

I didn't see the entire speech. Did he even say anything about them screaming "Lock her up?" glennward Jul 2016 #61

Nothing. He said "We must elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine" auntpurl Jul 2016 #62

10 on a good day. Vinca Jul 2016 #59

4.35 nt johnson_z Jul 2016 #63

6 - 8 katsy Jul 2016 #64

10. I don't trust der drumpfenfuhrer, and I won't breathe easy even aftr HRC is sworn in. niyad Jul 2016 #66

Seeing Trump apparently getting a bump from the dumpster fire that was the RNC? 9. Silent3 Jul 2016 #67

10 on the consequences of Trump winning. 4 on the chances. Tommy_Carcetti Jul 2016 #68

11. All leftists must hope for the best but plan for the worst. I know I am. - nt KingCharlemagne Jul 2016 #69

one Vattel Jul 2016 #70

I'm at a 10 genna Jul 2016 #71

6-7. The hard lefties haven't the intelligence to understand what OnDoutside Jul 2016 #72

Meh. About as much as I'm worried about being run over by a herd of ravenous tree sloths. Tierra_y_Libertad Jul 2016 #73

8-9 ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #74

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2016 #75

8 mahina Jul 2016 #76

I'm not a star member right now so can't mvd Jul 2016 #97

Roger, got you. Sorry mate. mahina Jul 2016 #117

9 superpatriotman Jul 2016 #77

10 sarae Jul 2016 #78

10 apcalc Jul 2016 #79

I give it a 30% probability Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #80

10. We live in dangerous times... vi5 Jul 2016 #84

5 citood Jul 2016 #85

3 RandySF Jul 2016 #86

8... StraightRazor Jul 2016 #88

7. Ilsa Jul 2016 #89

Poll numbers aren't reliable in this race Nedd Ludd Jul 2016 #90

Any republican has at least a 45% chance of winning Renew Deal Jul 2016 #91

100 (not a typo) Panich52 Jul 2016 #93

6 60/40 Hillary yuiyoshida Jul 2016 #94

9 workinclasszero Jul 2016 #95

0-1 mcar Jul 2016 #98

9 - Racism and Sexism Sell TomCADem Jul 2016 #99

It depends on what axis you mean mythology Jul 2016 #100

3 out of ten. much like his percentage chance of winning per nate silvers model. La Lioness Priyanka Jul 2016 #102

3 or 4 during the day, 9 or 10 around midnight emulatorloo Jul 2016 #103

10 because of the Bernie or Bust people. redstatebluegirl Jul 2016 #104

10+ doc03 Jul 2016 #105

3 Feet High and Rising Grey Lemercier Jul 2016 #106

10 Inspired Jul 2016 #107

Goose egg MrScorpio Jul 2016 #108

5.5 -- a one for low likelihood averaged with a ten for grievous consequences. Attorney in Texas Jul 2016 #109

4, used to be 1-2, but we're one "October Surprise" away from our first orange president 0rganism Jul 2016 #110

2 Dem2 Jul 2016 #111

About 5 get the red out Jul 2016 #112

I'm at mvd's level peggysue2 Jul 2016 #115

A post convention bump is pretty normal. I'm a 2. n/t cynatnite Jul 2016 #120

0, he's not winning shit. JRLeft Jul 2016 #121

7....however woolldog Jul 2016 #122

0. Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #123

Zero. betsuni Jul 2016 #125

10 terip64 Jul 2016 #126

I'm a 10 The empressof all Jul 2016 #127

I'm at 10! Not because of the recent polls, but because way, way, too many people napi21 Jul 2016 #128

7 hollowdweller Jul 2016 #129