people are acting as if hillary is guaranteed to win in a landslide [View all]
people on both sides are acting as if trump is more of an electoral disaster for republicans than we had in 1972 or 1984, when republicans won *49* states each time.
i'm certainly enjoying having the better candidate and being ahead in the polls, but let's keep it real:
trump is down by about *5* percentage points. not 15%, not 25%, just *five*.
if trump manages to win all the "toss-up" states, in most forecast models, he wins.
most likely, republicans will manage to get trump better handled and trump will hold it together long enough to get through election day. he'll have his share of gaffes and outrages, but they'll dress him up to look somewhat respectable.
i'm still comfortable predicting a victory for hillary, but it will be nothing like the disaster for republicans that many now seem to think trump will be.
at least not an electoral disaster. a branding disaster, sure; but that's a whole nothing ballgame.
keep in mind also that winning the senate is crucial to hillary's effectiveness, certainly with respect to appointments, particularly to the supreme court. that was widely seen as quite possible long before trump clinched the nomination and that remains hardly a given.
we've still got work to do.
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