2016 Postmortem

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7. even models that confidently predict hillary winning don't have her winning by much.

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 01:57 PM

Aug 2016

we'll do well to get 300 electoral votes; no way are we getting 350.

the popular vote margin could be 5%, but it's very, very unlikely to be 10%.

in other words, she'll likely win, but not by a landslide.

which makes all the talk about trump dropping out seem ridiculous.

he has his chances and is very unlikely to be electorally embarrassed beyond merely losing.

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people are acting as if hillary is guaranteed to win in a landslide [View all] unblock Aug 2016 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel Aug 2016 #1

Not as big a mistake as excessive anxiety and demoralizing displays of fearmongering. BobbyDrake Aug 2016 #11

What "fake concern" are you talking about TeddyR Aug 2016 #26

Nope. It's useless negativity intended to make DUers afraid and depressed. BobbyDrake Aug 2016 #31

Yeah, I've noticed that too. People still have to go vote, and not just talk about it. tonyt53 Aug 2016 #2

she is treestar Aug 2016 #3

even models that confidently predict hillary winning don't have her winning by much. unblock Aug 2016 #7

Right. Don't gloat - Vote! Beartracks Aug 2016 #4

People are acting as if DU'ers are stupid and won't bother to GOTV emulatorloo Aug 2016 #5

oh, no, i know du'ers will work hard. unblock Aug 2016 #8

Yeah Trump will never drop out. He seems very convinced that his strategy is working. emulatorloo Aug 2016 #10

I think Trump will lose by historically huge margins. stopbush Aug 2016 #6

Your concern is noted... StraightRazor Aug 2016 #9

I'm not laughing much at the jokes Dem2 Aug 2016 #12

Let us have this. liberalmuse Aug 2016 #13

my post wasn't directly (only) at democrats, but also at republicans and the media unblock Aug 2016 #22

Many people undecided, on the fence, not paying attention, etc. vote for who they think will win. Binkie The Clown Aug 2016 #14

You can not overestimate the Bandwagon Effect.... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2016 #16

Trump is falling to pieces. Orsino Aug 2016 #15

Exactly! And we ought not kid ourselves: All these ReThugs bitching about Trump **WILL** still vote Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2016 #17

Of course we have to turn out and GOTV. MineralMan Aug 2016 #18

350+ is a pipe dream. possible in theory, but i really can't see it happening. unblock Aug 2016 #23

People also hold Hillary to a much higher standard, so even a small mistake unitedwethrive Aug 2016 #19

yes indeed. racists and sexists. unblock Aug 2016 #24

This point cannot be overstated enough.... vi5 Aug 2016 #33

Many of the crazies are digging (WILL dig) lillypaddle Aug 2016 #20

Sometime you get to look a gift horse in the mouth, MyNameGoesHere Aug 2016 #21

Our GOTV effort is not just about the White House now. We have an opportunity to take back TeamPooka Aug 2016 #25

Guaranteed and extremely heavily favored are two different things. stopbush Aug 2016 #27

it's not even just about likelihood, although yes, that's looking quite good at the moment unblock Aug 2016 #29

I knew - knew - that Hillary would win the nomination after she won NV. stopbush Aug 2016 #36

hillary had the nomination sewn up before the first primary. unblock Aug 2016 #39

"most likely, republicans will manage to get trump better handled..." brooklynite Aug 2016 #28

trump himself made a stupid joke early on, "oh, i can do presidential" unblock Aug 2016 #30

Everyone laughed at the stupid stuff reagan used to say cutroot Aug 2016 #32

i was appalled that shrub got elected, then thought for sure we'd had enough by 2004. unblock Aug 2016 #35

Always act as if we're five points down. Philly-Union-Man Aug 2016 #34

Very possible and there is nothing wrong with being optimistic. DCBob Aug 2016 #37

Ever since The Terminator won my state (twice!) I take nothing for granted. Starry Messenger Aug 2016 #38

Trump will NEVER win all of the "toss-up" states. JoePhilly Aug 2016 #40

I tend to look at what the moneyline is Go Vols Aug 2016 #41

Hillary winning at 77.7% today Go Vols Aug 2016 #49

A few days of comic relief won't cost us the election. There is lots to do, but if we ... Hekate Aug 2016 #42

the way it's going im really thinking he will be replaced. n/t. okieinpain Aug 2016 #43

Big Republican money is going to down-ticket races DFW Aug 2016 #44

They're in no real danger of losing the house unblock Aug 2016 #45

No, we are not. That's the media. Don't fall for it. They know what they are doing. glennward Aug 2016 #46

A lot of replies show this is being taken personally unblock Aug 2016 #47

If they don't somehow lose Trump, they are in danger of losing The Second Stone Aug 2016 #48