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Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:10 AM


I believe that Bernie can really help boost support for Hillary with Millennial voters [View all]

I look forward to his hitting the trail and hope that he can still generate large numbers of people at rallies. She's leading Trump with these voters but trailing by a lot what Obama managed in 2008 and 2012.


Clinton is earning 41 percent, on average, with young voters. In both 2008 and 2012, by contrast, Barack Obama won at least 60 percent of these voters, according to the American National Election Studies (ANES).

But it’s not that younger voters like Trump. Quite the opposite: Only 20 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds across the five surveys say they’ll vote for him. If that held, it would be the worst performance by a major party nominee among voters under 30 since at least 1952, according to the ANES.

Rather, 18- to 29-year-olds seem to be flirting with third-party candidates more than usual this year. Both Johnson and Stein are polling in the double digits, and Johnson is nearly pulling the same percentage of the under-30 vote as Trump. That shouldn’t necessarily to be too surprising given that younger voters are more likely to identify as independents than are older voters. Younger voters were also much more likely to vote for independent Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary than other age groups were.

With an unusually high share of under-30 voters saying they’ll vote third party, Clinton’s margin over Trump among this age group is lower than we’d expect given how Obama did in the last two election cycles. Per the ANES, Obama won the under-30 crowd by 34 percentage points in 2008 and by 24 points in 2012. Right now, Clinton’s margin over Trump among 18- to -29- year-olds is 21 points. This isn’t a super fair comparison, as we’re putting a pre-election poll which includes undecided voters against a post-election poll of actual voters (with no undecideds, obviously).2 Also, third party candidates have historically lost support as Election Day approaches, so it’s possible some young voters will find their way back to the Democratic Party. But it’s something to keep an eye on.



The big Bernie rallies are returning, but this time, Sen. Sanders will be campaigning in swing states to get Hillary Clinton elected president.

According to The Washington Post:

Sanders, who endorsed Clinton last month, ticked off a list of states that he is likely to hit in coming weeks, including some where he won primaries and caucuses (New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin) and some where he fell short but ran strongly among key segments of the electorate (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada).

Sanders said that during some of those visits he will also campaign on behalf of Democratic Senate candidates, including Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania, Ted Strickland in Ohio and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. He is also planning to campaign for other progressive down-ballot candidates, he said.


It is a smart move by both the Clinton campaign and Sen. Sanders to harness the energy of his rallies as the next step towards integrating Sanders supporters and their ideas into the Democratic Party. The Democratic platform has shown that Democrats are serious about welcoming Sanders supporters into the party. With Sen. Sanders transitioning his presidential campaign into a broader progressive movement, the return of the big rallies will not only help Hillary Clinton but also help Sanders keep the momentum going forward on his agenda as well.



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