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Response to Jim__ (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:10 AM

5. I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll_accuracy_2012_presidential_election_110712.pdf

—Initial Report, November 7, 2012—
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science, Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection
polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote
(Obama 50.1% versus Romney 48.4%).
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 28 polling organizations. Most (18) polls overestimated Romney support, while ten
(10) overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national
pre-election polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
estimates (as reported on pollster.com).

1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies

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grantcart Nov 2012 OP
Dark n Stormy Knight Nov 2012 #1
Cicada Nov 2012 #2
grantcart Nov 2012 #6
Jim__ Nov 2012 #3
LineLineReply I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list
grantcart Nov 2012 #5
Jim__ Nov 2012 #7
grantcart Nov 2012 #10
Jim__ Nov 2012 #22
grantcart Nov 2012 #23
outsideworld Nov 2012 #4
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #8
bornskeptic Nov 2012 #9
grantcart Nov 2012 #11
bornskeptic Nov 2012 #12
Xyzse Nov 2012 #13
grantcart Nov 2012 #17
Xyzse Nov 2012 #19
former9thward Nov 2012 #14
outsideworld Nov 2012 #15
former9thward Nov 2012 #16
outsideworld Nov 2012 #24
former9thward Nov 2012 #27
grantcart Nov 2012 #18
former9thward Nov 2012 #21
PoliticalBiker Nov 2012 #20
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #25
grantcart Nov 2012 #29
oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #26
grantcart Nov 2012 #28
DCBob Nov 2012 #30
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