DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE [View all]

[Attorney in Texas]

The Huffington Post headline "DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE" should be a wake up call! This is a very well researched and clearly presented premise:

We simulated a Nov. 8 election 100 million times using our state-by-state probabilities. In 13.4 million simulations, Democrats ended up with at least 51 seats. Therefore, we say Democrats have a 13.4 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate.
...
The 2016 Senate consists of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats. (The two independent senators caucus with Democrats.) Voters usually re-elect their incumbent senators, but some seats could flip to the other party.

If four Republican Senate seats flip to Democrats and there are no other changes, the 2017 Senate will be split 50-50.
...

99.0% chance Wisconsin will flip to a Democrat
Russell Feingold (D) won against incumbent Ronald Johnson (R) in 99.9% of our simulations.
81.0% chance Illinois will flip to a Democrat
70.8% chance Nevada will flip to a Republican
Joe Heck (R) won against Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) in 77.5% of our simulations.
53.3% chance Pennsylvania will flip to a Democrat
Kathleen McGinty (D) won against incumbent Patrick Toomey (R) in 63.3% of our simulations.
Toss-up in Indiana
Toss-up in New Hampshire
Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) won against Maggie Hassan (D) in 53.2% of our simulations.

We are blowing an opportunity to take control of the Senate by focusing too much on a presidential race that is either already won or unwinnable (if America would elect Trump, we have overestimated America and that cannot be fixed in two months, but I believe America will not elect Trump because we're better than that).

We need to stop the fetishistic obsession on the presidential race and refocus on winning the Senate. Regardless of who is elected president, we will not get shit accomplished with a Senate and House both in Republican control.