DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE

[DarthDem]

16. Actually, in NV . . .

(I know this post is from someone who's very, very concerned, but still

Nevada could be very close, but it is notoriously difficult to poll. Some here may remember Harry Reid's elections in 1998 and 2010, where polls often showed him to be trailing, but in fact he won both races (2010 easily, by about 5.5%). The state has only gotten more defiant of analysis since; moreover, it also doesn't get polled very often for whatever reason, adding to the confusion. And the demographics of the state have changed every year as well, in Democrats' favor, of course. Cortez Masto is an excellent candidate and seems to be running a good campaign. That's at worst a tossup. It is in no way a Rethug lean.

By the way, the Ayotte "win simulations" - also replicated at Daily Kos' new polltracker and prediction metric in their attempt to share some of 538's mojo - come from one poll showing Ayotte ahead by an improbable margin. That's what's driving the simulations cited by HuffPo and what caused the Daily Kos thingamabob to change from predicting a 50-50 Senate to its current prediction. Hassan should win comfortably.

The real Senate news today is the DNC making ad buys in MO and NC, where Jason Kander and Deborah Ross have excellent shots at unseating two GOP backbenchers.