2016 Postmortem

LeftRant

(524 posts)

22. Indeed, they benefit from a close race.

Sun Sep 25, 2016, 03:45 AM

Sep 2016

But I don't think you can compare poll changes over 1 week with much certainty. The algorithms are best-guesses and always a work in progress, sample sizes are usually not huge (costs a lot to do), and there are many variances you can't account for. I would look more for trends over several weeks to see confirmable changes.

But I still think they always tighten up at the end. 2012 felt a little bit like a nail biter.

I continue to think that unless HRC screws something up bad or an Event of some kind happens, she's going to beat him. He's just so gross. There must be more than 50% of voters who can see that. Surely...

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So what the h*ll does this mean??? Hillary is now down AGAIN on the 538 site...... [View all] a kennedy Sep 2016 OP

Of course not. The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2016 #1

But it doesn't make any sense Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #2

A new PA poll came in from Muhlenberg College BadDog40 Sep 2016 #7

Nate did some consulting work for the GOP last month. Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #3

That is not correct (n/t) PJMcK Sep 2016 #14

This is a lie oberliner Sep 2016 #24

I have concluded that too... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #41

+1,000,000 Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #54

They added a poll that had Clinton up by 2 in PA. That's why there is a slight shift downward. SaschaHM Sep 2016 #4

No Need to Worry About Minute Shifts DarthDem Sep 2016 #5

I'm done with checking him. MFM008 Sep 2016 #6

closer poll than usual in PA Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #8

Is that just one poll or several? Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #9

1 poll Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #11

I sure hope so... Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #13

I find that so peculiar Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #10

It is Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #12

I sure hope that the jar doesn't have half white and half black -- I mean orange marbles! Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #15

if you knew the first thing about statistics, unblock Sep 2016 #51

Western PA is very conservative- they don't call it Pennsetucky bettyellen Sep 2016 #16

Yes, I know. Is that where the votes were from? Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #17

I'm pretty sure the statewide polls pick people spread throughout the state... bettyellen Sep 2016 #18

All of PA is not the same Kilgore Sep 2016 #30

Sorry Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #43

Washington Post just produced a bad national poll geek tragedy Sep 2016 #19

You shouldn't poll watch if it makes you nervous. LeftRant Sep 2016 #20

You shouldn't poll watch if it makes you nervous. LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #21

You forgot to average Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #27

That's right. LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #29

Indeed, they benefit from a close race. LeftRant Sep 2016 #22

Why do you post negative stuff about Hillary? Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #23

Bingo! Kaleva Sep 2016 #26

I remember posts sometimes. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #38

Good catch... abetterkid Sep 2016 #34

Exactly...so sick of it... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #39

Things often tighten like this oberliner Sep 2016 #25

Several bad polls today democrattotheend Sep 2016 #28

The odds of getting an out of sample poll are about 1/20 Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #32

You seem like a good person to ask ... Persondem Sep 2016 #35

I don't get it either Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #31

Chuck Todd was just talking about how Trump is doing worse among doc03 Sep 2016 #33

It doesn't make any sense to me either. LisaL Sep 2016 #36

That's what I am thinking democrattotheend Sep 2016 #37

So the polls are rigged to help Trump...just like in 2012. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #40

Turnout model based on 2004 democrattotheend Sep 2016 #42

I disagree with you completely Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #44

I do think turnout will be very low this year. The Democrats I know doc03 Sep 2016 #47

I would also like to add that 2012 was more like 2004 than this year despite Virginia. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #45

As a side note triron Sep 2016 #46

Ignore it and get BlueMTexpat Sep 2016 #48

I'm so sick of these 538 conspiracy theories. RAFisher Sep 2016 #49

His "details" are hand waves; his model is what I call social science "math"... Foggyhill Sep 2016 #53

This is purely a statistical model MyNameIsKhan Sep 2016 #50

It means the zombie apocalypse is about to occur La Lioness Priyanka Sep 2016 #52