2016 Postmortem

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)

8. A common mistake that RWers make....

Wed Sep 28, 2016, 12:46 PM

Sep 2016

The poll asks the respondents what their political affiliation is... They don't "sample" Democrats and Republicans....

They take a random sample of Americans... and report what they say is their political affiliation. If more respondents say they are Democrats than say they are Republicans, that means that likely more people are Democrats than Republicans in the general public as well.

People usually say whatever party aligns with the candidate they're voting for...regardless of what their registration is.

In years when Democrats win the White House, more people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans.

There is no "skewing"... as RWers discovered in 2012. If a poll is D+6... it is probably because the general public is close to D+6.

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NEW POLL: Reuters/Ipsos Clinton +6% nationally [View all] titaniumsalute Sep 2016 OP

That's a good one to see sharp_stick Sep 2016 #1

Thanks! mcar Sep 2016 #2

By Halloween I expect +10 with the way this is going. The_Casual_Observer Sep 2016 #3

I predicted a 7-10 bump for clinton. Joe941 Sep 2016 #22

I'll take it but... Joe941 Sep 2016 #4

752 dem vs 570 reps - the numbers are way off factfinder_77 Sep 2016 #6

Not really... more people in the general public identify as D than as R scheming daemons Sep 2016 #11

Knowing if they're "way off" is not that simple and looking at affiliation is not the way to do it. Foggyhill Sep 2016 #13

Welcome to DU alcibiades_mystery Sep 2016 #7

A common mistake that RWers make.... scheming daemons Sep 2016 #8

I wondered if that wasn't the case. Joe941 Sep 2016 #9

ask Dean Chambers nt geek tragedy Sep 2016 #10

Right wing talking point spotted Democat Sep 2016 #18

Post removed Post removed Sep 2016 #5

She triron Sep 2016 #12

This is a larger sample poll. Not all polls are alike (even though they are reported as such). Foggyhill Sep 2016 #14

Yeah so? titaniumsalute Sep 2016 #15

A larger sample has smaller margin of error and it is easier to make it a representative one Foggyhill Sep 2016 #21

I worked in statistical methodology research for 10 years titaniumsalute Sep 2016 #24

Good grief! Foggyhill Sep 2016 #28

I'm not saying you are not educated... titaniumsalute Sep 2016 #29

Nope.... according to RCP, this poll was 39-39 a week ago scheming daemons Sep 2016 #17

Note for the OP: This poll was 39-39 a week ago scheming daemons Sep 2016 #16

Thanks! I should have included that data originally titaniumsalute Sep 2016 #19

So clinton moved some undecided over: +6 bump for clinton Joe941 Sep 2016 #20

Looking triron Sep 2016 #23

So? What's your point? Again, what its YOUR POINT? titaniumsalute Sep 2016 #25

Awesome. Love it! Jim Dandy Sep 2016 #26

Reuters, even? Cracklin Charlie Sep 2016 #27