NEW POLL: Reuters/Ipsos Clinton +6% nationally

[titaniumsalute]

29. I'm not saying you are not educated...

But I am saying you don't know what you are talking about when it comes to survey research. Yeah, it is numbers. But as you know the science behind survey research is very unique. And it works.

Of course if you poll a "million white men" it wouldn't be a representative sample. That's why they don't poll a million white men.

It has been proven mathematically that you don't need a huge sample to represent a general opinion. Yes an N=1000 IS good enough, with demographic weighting, to be a representative sample base. Take a look at this from 2012. It is the last 10 or so polls for the 2012 general election. They were all, in aggregate, at about the +- 3%. (3.2% to be exact.) I would say that is pretty close in the grand scheme of things. You could poll 3,000 people but the MOE doesn't change much and the costs start soaring. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Some research companies do employ panel methods that represent the universe demographically up front to reduce weighting to almost zero. But they are typically very expensive as the panelists must be compensated for their continued time and effort.

The poll I mentioned about did take into consideration the demographics and a representative sample by weighting for age, gender, education, and employment. Our company would have also weighted to race and HH income.

So overall most polls are NOT bad. Some are more reliable than others. I do agree that all polls are reported for media's new headline which is bad when it is shoddy internet online unscientific polls.