How soon before Allan Lichtman changes his prediction? [View all]

[RBInMaine]

The problem from the very start of Lichtman's pro Trump prediction, as he actually said, is that this year's Republican candidate is so "unusual" so it could throw off the historical trends upon which his predictive formula is based.

Remember that. Because I think that is just what we are seeing before our very eyes right now. This is why he gave himself this caveat this year. Make no mistake. Lichtman knew, and had already been clearly on record, saying that his model may be thrown off in this cycle because of the "unusual nature" of Trump. Well, Trump is certainly unusual. He is a confirmed sexual deviant. It doesn't get that much more unusual.

Also, I don't think Gary Johnson in the end will pull 5% but if he does, I think it will be more from registered Republicans than Democrats. It will be moderate Republicans.

But even if Johnson does get at least 5%, the thing that is really sinking Lichtman's model this year is that his model, the 13 keys, is based on a TRADITIONAL opposition candidacy, and Trump doesn't qualify as a traditional candidacy. So this will be interesting.

Meantime, get out there and vote early if you can, GOTV, write letters to the editor, donate to Hillary, and do anything you can to sink Trump and elect Hillary. We have to continue to charge hard to the finish line.