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2016 Postmortem

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)

6. Several of his categories are subjective and not empirical

Reply to Cicada (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 13, 2016, 09:00 AM

Oct 2016

For example, the category about the candidate being charismatic, or the categories about the president's party having a "major" domestic or foreign policy achievement. Those criteria have never been sharply defined.

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How soon before Allan Lichtman changes his prediction? [View all] RBInMaine Oct 2016 OP

I think so too Ardoewaan Oct 2016 #1

Mostly agree, but they do need to also keep attacking Trump as an "unfit" candidate. Every campaign RBInMaine Oct 2016 #2

You're right Ardoewaan Oct 2016 #3

The candidate herself needs to do both the attack message and the positive message. RBInMaine Oct 2016 #8

i think johnson won't get 5%, and the model will have correctly predicted hillary. unblock Oct 2016 #4

He will not change his prediction Cicada Oct 2016 #5

Several of his categories are subjective and not empirical bluestateguy Oct 2016 #6

I'm very surprise that he says the Iran Nuclear Agreement doesn't count as a success bigdarryl Oct 2016 #10

But he left himself TWO outs: If Johnson gets below 5% or Trump being so unusual. The model might RBInMaine Oct 2016 #7

And will it discredit him if he is wrong? RBInMaine Oct 2016 #9

Not with me. A good model doesn't have to be perfect. Cicada Oct 2016 #11