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2016 Postmortem

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

10. Confidence level of early voter determination improves.

Reply to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 04:24 PM

Oct 2016

The two parties do not early vote at the same rate, so you cannot do early voting exit polls with accurate results. Polling still has to do weighting with the prediction of who will vote. best case scenario, margin of error drops as more respondents have voted.

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With so many folks opting for early voting; how how this figure into daily poll projections? [View all] Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 OP

Good question. And here's a follow-up Q: Sunny05 Oct 2016 #1

NYT/Upshot has a good analysis reasonabletexan Oct 2016 #2

So if more dems are voting early and their not in the polling projections Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #5

538 never makes sense triron Oct 2016 #6

Me neither Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #7

I prefer Sam Wang's triron Oct 2016 #9

I think early voters are in the projection triron Oct 2016 #8

I think, by far, the early voters are Dems -- based on fear of monster lines & other forms of voter Bill USA Oct 2016 #12

the more early vote the better, Clinton ground game will round up the rest, less to do on the 8th. sunonmars Oct 2016 #3

I would think that the more that opt for early voting Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #4

Confidence level of early voter determination improves. Coyotl Oct 2016 #10

Why in the f--- are those 538 polling projections ticking slightly down for Hillary. Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #11