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2016 Postmortem

Cha

(297,202 posts)

12. Mahalo, grant! This is kind of what I was gathering from reading

Reply to grantcart (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 11:40 PM

Nov 2016

what was being said about Nate's models and Sam Wang's methods.

Just saw this tweet from Sam..

Sam Wang ?@SamWangPhD · 6h6 hours ago
Sam Wang Retweeted Clara Jeffery
Good thing there isn't anything serious to do, like figure out what's happening in Senate, or interpret early voting, or go get out the vote

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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15 replies

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Highlight:

The Fundamental Problem with Nate Silver's Model [View all] grantcart Nov 2016 OP

Spot on! manicraven Nov 2016 #1

Thats a great picture. grantcart Nov 2016 #4

Thank you for this concise explanation! Avalux Nov 2016 #2

Love the conclusion. I've seen a number of people say Hortensis Nov 2016 #3

HOW about early vote. How does that for in DLCWIdem Nov 2016 #6

He doesn't factor that in. And it doesn't make sense either grantcart Nov 2016 #7

Doesn't explicitly include early vote GopherGal Nov 2016 #16

So glad to see your posts again! yardwork Nov 2016 #8

Sorry, the state polls make no sense in relation to a 6 point Hillary lead Awsi Dooger Nov 2016 #9

Absolute nonsense grantcart Nov 2016 #10

His model is mostly based on state polls. BzaDem Nov 2016 #11

How Nate Silver "unskews" the polls -- and why he shouldn't. pnwmom Nov 2016 #15

Mahalo, grant! This is kind of what I was gathering from reading Cha Nov 2016 #12

Hey Cha grantcart Nov 2016 #13

Good point! And, considering Team Hillary's ground game, too Cha Nov 2016 #14