The "How many states do you think 538 will get wrong?" poll

[Imperialism Inc.]

6. I've been really embarrassed about fellow Democrats and their reaction to

Nate Silver's model this time around. It has taken away one of my great joys from 2012, being able to laugh at how Republicans were poll-truthers. The way they ignored models like Nate Silver's (that was basically the same then as now minus some minor tweaks) that showed a steady, high chance of Obama winning. And, who can forget that wonderful moment with Rove on Fox when Megyn Kelly asked him, "are those numbers real, or is that just math you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better?"

The story this time has been every time Silver's model tightens he is spat upon, but when it shows things going very well he is embraced. This time people have gone searching for the number that makes them feel the best. Just look at the love Sam Wang gets. I wish we could have a 100 elections so I could bet against the people who really think Clinton has a 99% chance of victory. Given the polls and the levels of uncertainty (such as possible polling error, and number of undecided and third party voters) anyone who thinks only one out of a hundred times would end up being a loss are delusional.

Is Silver's number too low? Probably. None of the models account for early voting, for example. Still, it is nowhere near a 99% win rate.