2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Something is wrong with the Democratic Party [View all]BumRushDaShow
(164,912 posts)Based on some of the data in PA, I believe that the surge that we saw here was from previous non-voters on the GOP side. I.e., we know that general elections tend to maybe hit 60% turnout with the other 40% not bothering. And in PA's case, except for the Presidential and Senate seats, Democrats took the rest of the state offices on the ballot - Attorney General, Auditor General, and State Treasurer.
But in this case, just like Obama had energized previous "non-voters" on the Dem side to come out and vote, Trump was able to do the same for "non-voter" GOPers. And I think those GOPers who were regular voters and who had voted for Obama previously, either did not vote the top of the ticket this go-around or voted 3rd party, where the 3, 3rd party candidates garnered ~202,700 votes (with perhaps a few going on and voting for Trump).
So their (lack of) votes, plus a reduced Democratic turnout, was offset by a new larger group of GOPers who put Trump over the top by enough of a margin in enough of our PA counties (outside of SE PA) to throw the totals his way.
A question one might ask is what this newly enfranchised group of GOP voters will do in 2018? And for some reason I believe that "non-voters" tend to go back to that state of "not voting" pretty quickly... This is assuming they learn that Trump "is not on the ballot" (just like we saw during the midterms when I had people I work with ask "Is Obama on the ballot?" and apparently since he wasn't, they didn't bother to vote...
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