2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Youre not just imagining it: the Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump vote totals do look rigged [View all]BzaDem
(11,142 posts)He claims turnout dropped significantly, and that this is somehow a red flag. This is forgetting that millions of votes are still being counted. 2016 turnout will almost certainly exceed 2012 turnout in terms of absolute voters. (Nor would it actually be a red flag if turnout did go down.)
He then spends much of his article making comparisons to the primary electorate. The primary electorate is much smaller than the general electorate. Direct comparisons don't make sense.
Finally, he says polling averages have never been this wrong. The reality is quite the opposite. Polls were more wrong in 2014 and 2012 than they were in 2016. HRC will likely win the popular vote by 1.5-2 points when all the votes are counted, which is quite similar to the +3.3 average of the pre-election polls. Polls of the Midwestern swing states were off by a bit more, but these differences were not out of the ordinary (and were exacerbated by a lack of high quality polling in the midwest close to election day). In 2012, the polling averages understated Obama's support by 3 points, and in 2014, the polling averages understated Republicans by 3-4 points.
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