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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Wisconsin 4-month run-up: Clinton leads by 6 points ... until Nov. 8: [View all]radius777
(3,635 posts)67. initial exits were wrong regarding Latinos
Dont believe those exit polls saying 25 percent of Latinos voted for Trump
There was a lot of talk about this being the year the Latino vote would sway the election. It didnt quite happen, but the outcome shouldnt distract us from the strides made in turnout and democratic engagement in that population.
That turnout has been severely understated by the National Election Pool exit polls, on which many post-election reports are drawing: Those suggest that fully 25 percent of Latinos supported Trump.
But thats just wrong. The severe limitations of traditional exit polls to properly capture the Latino electorate have long been obvious to scholars. Improper precinct selection, for example, leads to non-representative samples that inflate support for Republicans.
The more nuanced surveys by Latino Decisions, the firm where I work, found that Trump received the lowest level of support among Latino voters on record for any presidential candidate: a mere 18 percent.
There was a lot of talk about this being the year the Latino vote would sway the election. It didnt quite happen, but the outcome shouldnt distract us from the strides made in turnout and democratic engagement in that population.
That turnout has been severely understated by the National Election Pool exit polls, on which many post-election reports are drawing: Those suggest that fully 25 percent of Latinos supported Trump.
But thats just wrong. The severe limitations of traditional exit polls to properly capture the Latino electorate have long been obvious to scholars. Improper precinct selection, for example, leads to non-representative samples that inflate support for Republicans.
The more nuanced surveys by Latino Decisions, the firm where I work, found that Trump received the lowest level of support among Latino voters on record for any presidential candidate: a mere 18 percent.
I think other exits were wrong as well, and Hillary did as good with black voters as any white Democrat (Gore, Kerry) in the modern era (Obama was the first black president, can't expect anyone else to get similar black turnout).
She likely underperformed with white college and white women, undecideds and young people, who likely broke late for Trump or stayed home due to Comey/FBI's unprecedented meddling in an election with just 11 days to go.
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No they weren't. Private companies programmed the machines before 1 off was ever cast
onecaliberal
Nov 2016
#81
As I stated before, the polls weren't wrong. Just the data sets which were used in these data sets
Exilednight
Nov 2016
#11
No, they used some shit from mars... they pulled DPutins LV out of their asses and threw them on
uponit7771
Nov 2016
#52
Yes, every single one of those polls were wrong according to the msm... all the polling science
uponit7771
Nov 2016
#48
Even Nate Silver cautioned a couple days ahead of the election that HRC's lead was pretty thin...
Hassin Bin Sober
Nov 2016
#68
It's NOT the polls that were wrong. It was the people interpreting the poll numbers.
Exilednight
Nov 2016
#20
Campaign was presumably getting the same polling results showing these states were safe.
LisaL
Nov 2016
#26
One didn't need polls to know she wasn't doing all that well with rural white voters.
LisaL
Nov 2016
#77
Which is based off of data sets. It's not guess work. Polls showed that voter turnout was going to
Exilednight
Nov 2016
#39
Social scence does include art, it just studies it. I've also never met a pollster that will tell
Exilednight
Nov 2016
#36
I do realize it. The implication is that any pollster that says polling is an art is going to get
Exilednight
Nov 2016
#44
There are lists of people who broke down the same polls and came up with how this election would
Exilednight
Nov 2016
#49
Palast warned us in August about the crosscheck purge but none of us screamed loud enough
KewlKat
Nov 2016
#87
Same in other battleground states, same rigorous, accurate polling in all of them.
Coyotl
Nov 2016
#4
Polsters response: "...well, that's a rational question...but fuck you ok? go fuck off k? " /sarcasm
uponit7771
Nov 2016
#47
Obviously WI and MI are swing states because they swung republican this election.
LisaL
Nov 2016
#73