2016 Postmortem

former9thward

(33,424 posts)

22. There was no significant crossover.

Fri Jun 13, 2014, 06:28 PM

Jun 2014

Democrats did not even pay attention to that race until Tuesday night.

Little evidence for widespread Democratic cross over voting to oppose Cantor in GOP primary
Vote counts show turnout did not spike higher in more Democratic-voting counties, and Cantor lost most support in Republican strongholds.

Likewise, Cantor saw the biggest drop-off in support in Republican strongholds of Hanover (-44 percentage points) and New Kent (-44 points), counties where Obama drew just over 30 percent of the vote in 2012. In Henrico County where Obama won 55 percent support, Cantor's drop-off was a smaller 32 points. The overall correlation between Obama's county support and Cantor's drop-off was clearly negative at -.60, indicating that the higher Obama's 2012 support, the lower Republican primary turnout rose this year. This is consistent with the idea that Republicans largely drove the rise in turnout.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/

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Cantor was defeated by Democrats voting in Virginia's open primary [View all] pwb Jun 2014 OP

Democrats crossing over has been disproven as the reason why Cantor lost... n/t hlthe2b Jun 2014 #1

Disproven? savalez Jun 2014 #5

Duh. Of course that is what the pollster wants everyone to believe hlthe2b Jun 2014 #6

Oh, I did do some reading. savalez Jun 2014 #10

That you would believe the excuse offered by the pollster? REALLY? hlthe2b Jun 2014 #16

Maybe you missed this part of my post. savalez Jun 2014 #19

There was no significant crossover. former9thward Jun 2014 #22

Posted on DailyKos today: savalez Jun 2014 #29

Maybe but I doubt it. former9thward Jun 2014 #31

More reliable sources do exist... DonViejo Jun 2014 #27

Posted on DailyKos today: savalez Jun 2014 #30

Cantor's people are all over the place. They are blaming everything. First it was fraud. Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2014 #32

If true, what's the bad part? TheCowsCameHome Jun 2014 #2

That district customerserviceguy Jun 2014 #3

Brat is indeed 'worse' than Cantor, but as a junior member, he will not Nay Jun 2014 #7

I'd be really surprised customerserviceguy Jun 2014 #8

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Brat loses, too. But Dem leaders have a horrible Nay Jun 2014 #13

I've heard the same thing. Folks are also donating nirvana555 Jun 2014 #4

They Have An Open Primary? billhicks76 Jun 2014 #9

Virginia does have an open primary Brother Buzz Jun 2014 #11

Confused billhicks76 Jun 2014 #12

Didn't, they do now Brother Buzz Jun 2014 #14

The Dems DO have a candidate (Trammel), but they nominated him last Nay Jun 2014 #15

We Should've Targeted Cantor!!!! billhicks76 Jun 2014 #17

Of course we should have, esp when the last challenger polled 40%. It Nay Jun 2014 #18

DLC billhicks76 Jun 2014 #23

the very same democrats who we are all worried wont vote in the gen election in 2014? La Lioness Priyanka Jun 2014 #20

That has been disproven. former9thward Jun 2014 #21

Source? Lil Missy Jun 2014 #24

It's quite possible IMHO. sendero Jun 2014 #25

Whether is was Democrats or not Turbineguy Jun 2014 #26

Already debunked even though I originally thought the same. RandySF Jun 2014 #28

Dailykos thought so too but then this happened savalez Jun 2014 #33

His conclusion doesn't match yours FBaggins Jun 2014 #34

What's my conclusion? savalez Jun 2014 #35

Apologies... should have said "the conclusion of the OP" n/t FBaggins Jun 2014 #36

This is going to be interesting. savalez Jun 2014 #38

Everyone is guessing. There is no proof either way, but I tend to agree that it was Democrats. stevenleser Jun 2014 #37