Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

RandySF

(80,869 posts)
28. Already debunked even though I originally thought the same.
Sat Jun 14, 2014, 12:51 PM
Jun 2014

Virginia's lack of party registration makes it difficult to pin down whether Democrats crossed over in large numbers, but local level turnout provides some indirect clues on whether this phenomenon was widespread. On two counts, the data cast doubt on whether Democratic cross-over voting caused Cantor's loss.

While Republican primary turnout spiked by 28 percent over 2012, according to the State Board of Elections, Cantor received nearly 8,500 fewer votes this year than he did in the 2012 Republican primary, a drop that was larger than Brat's 7,200-vote margin of victory. Regardless of how many Democrats turned out to oppose Cantor, he still would have prevailed had he maintained the same level of support as in his 2012 landslide.

If Democrats showed up in large numbers to vote against Cantor, turnout should have spiked highest from 2012 in Democratic-leaning areas, with Cantor seeing an especially large drop-off in support. In fact, turnout rose slightly more in counties that voted more heavily for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election.

Likewise, Cantor saw the biggest drop-off in support in Republican strongholds of Hanover (-44 percentage points) and New Kent (-44 points), counties where Obama drew just over 30 percent of the vote in 2012. In Henrico County where Obama won 55 percent support, Cantor's drop-off was a smaller 32 points. The overall correlation between Obama's county support and Cantor's drop-off was clearly negative at -.60, indicating that the higher Obama's 2012 support, the lower Republican primary turnout rose this year. This is consistent with the idea that Republicans largely drove the rise in turnout.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Democrats crossing over has been disproven as the reason why Cantor lost... n/t hlthe2b Jun 2014 #1
Disproven? savalez Jun 2014 #5
Duh. Of course that is what the pollster wants everyone to believe hlthe2b Jun 2014 #6
Oh, I did do some reading. savalez Jun 2014 #10
That you would believe the excuse offered by the pollster? REALLY? hlthe2b Jun 2014 #16
Maybe you missed this part of my post. savalez Jun 2014 #19
There was no significant crossover. former9thward Jun 2014 #22
Posted on DailyKos today: savalez Jun 2014 #29
Maybe but I doubt it. former9thward Jun 2014 #31
More reliable sources do exist... DonViejo Jun 2014 #27
Posted on DailyKos today: savalez Jun 2014 #30
Cantor's people are all over the place. They are blaming everything. First it was fraud. Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2014 #32
If true, what's the bad part? TheCowsCameHome Jun 2014 #2
That district customerserviceguy Jun 2014 #3
Brat is indeed 'worse' than Cantor, but as a junior member, he will not Nay Jun 2014 #7
I'd be really surprised customerserviceguy Jun 2014 #8
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Brat loses, too. But Dem leaders have a horrible Nay Jun 2014 #13
I've heard the same thing. Folks are also donating nirvana555 Jun 2014 #4
They Have An Open Primary? billhicks76 Jun 2014 #9
Virginia does have an open primary Brother Buzz Jun 2014 #11
Confused billhicks76 Jun 2014 #12
Didn't, they do now Brother Buzz Jun 2014 #14
The Dems DO have a candidate (Trammel), but they nominated him last Nay Jun 2014 #15
We Should've Targeted Cantor!!!! billhicks76 Jun 2014 #17
Of course we should have, esp when the last challenger polled 40%. It Nay Jun 2014 #18
DLC billhicks76 Jun 2014 #23
the very same democrats who we are all worried wont vote in the gen election in 2014? La Lioness Priyanka Jun 2014 #20
That has been disproven. former9thward Jun 2014 #21
Source? Lil Missy Jun 2014 #24
It's quite possible IMHO. sendero Jun 2014 #25
Whether is was Democrats or not Turbineguy Jun 2014 #26
Already debunked even though I originally thought the same. RandySF Jun 2014 #28
Dailykos thought so too but then this happened savalez Jun 2014 #33
His conclusion doesn't match yours FBaggins Jun 2014 #34
What's my conclusion? savalez Jun 2014 #35
Apologies... should have said "the conclusion of the OP" n/t FBaggins Jun 2014 #36
This is going to be interesting. savalez Jun 2014 #38
Everyone is guessing. There is no proof either way, but I tend to agree that it was Democrats. stevenleser Jun 2014 #37
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Cantor was defeated by De...»Reply #28