2016 Postmortem

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)

23. This is his second midterm cycle ever. 2010 he missed the call in both Houses.

Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:22 AM

Aug 2014

His predicted number of seats won by Republicans was off by 11 seats in the House. 11. That IS his midterm House record, and it is not very good. He was wrong on 3 Senate races as well, big important races. He predicted Harry Reid would lose. Harry won. Important race.
Just some perspective. I also called 2008 very well. I have no system. I run no numbers. I got 2012 right as well. So the difficulty level

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Is Nate Silver Fudging the poll? Maybe the Democrats are ahead? [View all] Always Randy Aug 2014 OP

I think that's maybe wishful thinking? TDale313 Aug 2014 #1

you are right TDale313 abot the 2016---- Always Randy Aug 2014 #6

Yep, GOTV! n/t TDale313 Aug 2014 #8

you say they've invested heavily in his brand and then figure he'd fudge numbers? unblock Aug 2014 #2

thank you unblock-----I try to see who the advertisers are on these blogs Always Randy Aug 2014 #20

haha! well i just got my aarp card so i've joined that club, too! unblock Aug 2014 #21

I have to say that if we are on DU---we are relevant Always Randy Aug 2014 #26

I doubt he's fudging the numbers. BillZBubb Aug 2014 #3

This --> "it is still early and most voters aren't yet engaged" winter is coming Aug 2014 #5

casual voters only show up every four years pstokely Aug 2014 #16

Unlikely, in my opinion. n/t winter is coming Aug 2014 #4

Please understand I am not judging his integrity ---just his tenacity to survive Always Randy Aug 2014 #7

He survives by being right. nt hack89 Aug 2014 #11

Silver is to be taken seriously Gman Aug 2014 #9

Nate doesn't poll, he uses aggregates of other polls. Arkana Aug 2014 #10

This is his second midterm cycle ever. 2010 he missed the call in both Houses. Bluenorthwest Aug 2014 #23

Not really FBaggins Aug 2014 #29

I think he uses the poll numbers of others Always Randy Aug 2014 #31

Understand that we are very far off from the election. That's an eternity away in politics. Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #12

Why would he.. sendero Aug 2014 #13

Agree or not agree with all of this post, I agree that we should be skeptical of Nate in Todays_Illusion Aug 2014 #14

the polls right now are fudged pstokely Aug 2014 #15

So Many republican Pollssters These Days Stallion Aug 2014 #18

Any numbers that I don't like are certainly fudged, JayhawkSD Aug 2014 #17

The reason Dems are behind is where those seats are located BainsBane Aug 2014 #19

His senate results suck though. lancer78 Aug 2014 #28

thank you lancer 78--please tell me more Always Randy Aug 2014 #35

Nate's reputation is based on a very short resume in political predictions, two Presidential cycles Bluenorthwest Aug 2014 #22

I think you are spot on on this Always Randy Aug 2014 #24

Short resume & Nate's a polling guru misterhighwasted Aug 2014 #25

It is of course possible rock Aug 2014 #27

I don't think it is structurally wrong Always Randy Aug 2014 #37

No Garthem Aug 2014 #30

Thanks for the reply----i am with you on this---but my business side sasy he might do this Always Randy Aug 2014 #32

I have the Dems ahead... tgards79 Aug 2014 #33

Wow ---what a site Always Randy Aug 2014 #36

We can retain control of Senate (with Biden as tie breaker) if... WI_DEM Aug 2014 #34

my intuitive feelings are similar to how I felt in the 2012 Always Randy Aug 2014 #38

I thought it was 80%. but to me the most important thing to think about okieinpain Aug 2014 #39

you are right Always Randy Aug 2014 #42

When Republicans were behind according to Nate in 2012 we mocked them for not believing the numbers. TeamPooka Aug 2014 #40

If Nate has a bias, it's likely in democrats favor, he used to blog at Daily Kos ShadowLiberal Aug 2014 #41

my thought here was that he was fudging ONLY for his interest Always Randy Aug 2014 #43

The problem with that is that he doesn't produce the numbers. FBaggins Aug 2014 #44

LOL. we are beginning to sound like ari fleisher who swore up and down that Romney was leading in La Lioness Priyanka Aug 2014 #45

Are you trying to "unskew" those polls for us? nt tblue37 Aug 2014 #46

No. n/t Orangepeel Aug 2014 #47