2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Which Republican would be the toughest opponent in 2016? [View all]Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)What gets a Republican to 270 next year? They have no obvious killer issue. The economy will be so-so but not the disaster of 2008. Their railing against Obamacare will have softened because millions of swing voters know that it won't be repealed and shouldn't be -- the Republicans will be reduced to urging tweaks. I'll hopefully assume no foreign policy disasters (including no major military quagmires, just an ongoing minor quagmire in Afghanistan).
Their best chance for a win is a simple "time for a change" pitch. The five wins for FDR-Truman and three for Reagan-Bush41 were the only times since the Depression that the same party has won the White House three times in a row (noting an asterisk for 2000).
Not that I want to incite yet another pro- or anti-Hillary thread, but if she's the nominee, it probably helps the Republicans make the argument against yet another Democratic term. For similar reasons, it's harder for them to say "time for a change" if they're running another Bush.
Kasich is still relatively unknown nationally, so would come across as a fresh face, and isn't as vulnerable to attack as the others. He was just handily re-elected in a key swing state.
I console myself that he's unlikely to get the nomination. If he does, though, I'll be worried.
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