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2016 Postmortem

EL34x4

(2,003 posts)

20. They're going to be in trouble all over the place.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #19)

Sat Apr 18, 2015, 01:11 PM

Apr 2015

I've been playing with the maps over at http://www.270towin.com and I just don't see Hillary ceding much of the ground that Obama won in '12. Even if she loses FL, OH, CO, NM and NC (where Obama won in '08 but lost in '12) she still wins with 271 EVs.

I know Nate Silver says differently but it is an uphill battle for the GOP to regain lost ground against Hillary Clinton. I do think they'll have an easier job if Hillary is defeated in the primaries and we get someone who is less known.

Then again, like I said, I'm horrible at this stuff.

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Will HRC get the Bubba vote from the Red states that Obama lost? [View all] Always Randy Apr 2015 OP

Someone needs to check in with these folks jberryhill Apr 2015 #1

If these folks are voting for Hillary ---she'll win by a landslide Always Randy Apr 2015 #5

Thanks to FOX/corpmedia a lot of that vote was already lost for Dems by 2000. blm Apr 2015 #2

No. Times are different. We are even more polarized. Clinton is woman, which will hurt her in the Agnosticsherbet Apr 2015 #3

Yeah Cosmocat Apr 2015 #8

Not gonna happen. BillZBubb Apr 2015 #4

Hillary is from Arkansas and still has a lot of friends there Always Randy Apr 2015 #6

I don't see her winning my state, Tennessee redstateblues Apr 2015 #7

Not likely Kentucky either. leftofcool Apr 2015 #27

No she won't. Rednecks are farther to the right now. She might get some of the rural union voters. hollowdweller Apr 2015 #9

VA, FL, and NC are in play DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #10

Nope. mwooldri Apr 2015 #11

Hillary-D will win all of the Kerry 2004 states (NH-4,PA-20,and WI-10)246ev plus NPolitics1979 Apr 2015 #12

She wins every state Obama won in 2012 EL34x4 Apr 2015 #13

I'm not as bearish on FL as you. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #15

I'm bearish on Florida EL34x4 Apr 2015 #18

If Jeb or Rubio are on the ticket and they're fighting for FL in late October... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #19

They're going to be in trouble all over the place. EL34x4 Apr 2015 #20

I hope so...HRC is certainly the favorite but not a prohibitive one. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #21

I don't see her losing these states either. EL34x4 Apr 2015 #22

We can't see into the future and we are both seeing the election through our own lens... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #23

You think Jeb or Rubio could win FL? leftofcool Apr 2015 #26

The presumption used to be carrying your home state was a given... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #30

No doubt you are correct. leftofcool Apr 2015 #31

We can always count on a few delusional people on DU davidpdx Apr 2015 #14

I am not sure that she will get the bubba vote in significant numbers, but Persondem Apr 2015 #16

I don't think the Clintons can win AR, TN, LA, or WV. We may have a shot in KY but that's it. craigmatic Apr 2015 #17

There's no more Reagan Democrats EL34x4 Apr 2015 #29

It's Always A Possibility, Who Thought Indiana Would Vote Obama In 2008? Corey_Baker08 Apr 2015 #24

I would like to see an Arkansas poll but I suspect that state has went so hard right... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #25

Doubtful, but I wouldn't put it past her to pull out the ol' race card and give it a try tularetom Apr 2015 #28