2016 Postmortem

ljm2002

(10,751 posts)

78. Just 2 months ago...

Wed Jul 8, 2015, 09:00 AM

Jul 2015

...there was no probable scenario where Bernie would win Iowa and New Hampshire. There was no probable scenario where he would collect $15M in donations from small donors. There was no probable scenario where he would be drawing record crowds.

So, while I do agree that it is improbable for Bernie to win the Democratic primary, I do not agree that "it's just not going to happen". A lot of improbable things happen every day.

Remember Howard Dean's comments on Morning Joe after Bernie's Denver rally:

(transcript excerpt from http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/23/1395700/-Republicans-for-Bernie-Sanders):

Howard Dean lays it out after they ask him why he's chuckling:

"Because I've seen this for 40 years... people underestimate him.

...

I remember my last election after I did civil unions and I got clobbered and in a certain part of the state that always votes conservative Bernie Sanders got every vote that my very conservative opponent got. He has a tremendous appeal to ordinary working people who feel like they're getting screwed."

See the video clip here:

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/sanders-draws-capacity-crowds-in-denver-469257795761

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Here is how the Democratic Primaries will shake out. [View all] RandySF Jul 2015 OP

Let me help you. THX1138 sgtbenobo Jul 2015 #1

Maybe if we had to decide right now as you might prefer. We have a whole bunch of time left. brewens Jul 2015 #2

could be ibegurpard Jul 2015 #3

The Mega Millions drawing is tonight. SamKnause Jul 2015 #4

oooo i could really use that info too restorefreedom Jul 2015 #39

Lol Champion Jack Jul 2015 #51

Who do you pick at Belmont in the sixth? nt. Snotcicles Jul 2015 #60

Remember this name...especially in the Southern states jaysunb Jul 2015 #5

perhaps Sherman A1 Jul 2015 #6

i predict what happened with the Gore Bradley 2000 race JI7 Jul 2015 #7

If you're so sure of that, why bother starting this thread? Ken Burch Jul 2015 #8

Getting desperate is what this is all about madokie Jul 2015 #9

Money may not have a vote, but it buys lots of votes DFW Jul 2015 #15

No, money doesn't buy votes madokie Jul 2015 #21

It's not worth an argument. DFW Jul 2015 #32

The problem was that Dean was a centrist.. Man of Distinction Jul 2015 #65

People didn't call Howard a centrist twelve years ago. Labels & slogans. Might as well be Fox Noise. DFW Jul 2015 #75

Actually, Bernie is drawing crowds,... Spitfire of ATJ Jul 2015 #16

Does this mean Mnpaul Jul 2015 #17

kinda looks that way madokie Jul 2015 #20

The way the U.S. press treats Democrats and real people kinda makes me want to tie them up too emulatorloo Jul 2015 #54

They can't do it to his face because he steers every interview into the issues.... Spitfire of ATJ Jul 2015 #59

Agreed, he is great at that. emulatorloo Jul 2015 #61

The whole hillary Clinton can't win meme is ridiculous. hrmjustin Jul 2015 #44

Either your reading comprehension skills are poor ... GeorgeGist Jul 2015 #68

I think yours are. hrmjustin Jul 2015 #69

It's not a meme I was personally spreading. Ken Burch Jul 2015 #73

Thank you for your concern. nt valerief Jul 2015 #10

Who knew Nostradamus was on DU?!!! Indepatriot Jul 2015 #11

LOL! Rosa Luxemburg Jul 2015 #42

I want freakin' extra pepperoni on my pizza! Liberal_Stalwart71 Jul 2015 #12

High grease content. Not healthy. But if that's your wish. nt. NCTraveler Jul 2015 #36

What Midwestern states? murielm99 Jul 2015 #13

Wisconsin, North Dakota and Minnesota RandySF Jul 2015 #33

I respectfully disagree. n/t murielm99 Jul 2015 #56

Wisconsin, Colorado and Minnesota... Man of Distinction Jul 2015 #66

I am a Midwesterner. murielm99 Jul 2015 #74

Democratic socialist Man of Distinction Jul 2015 #77

The distinction will not be made murielm99 Jul 2015 #80

Which states will Joe Biden win? n/t PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #14

you're being generous. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #18

To Hillary. morningfog Jul 2015 #22

to Sanders. He'll be done by April 1. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #23

I can't wait for the debates, if Hillary shows, morningfog Jul 2015 #24

irrelevant. Bernie can't win the southern and western primaries and caucuses in March wyldwolf Jul 2015 #25

Watch the polls when he campaigns there. morningfog Jul 2015 #27

Sure thing. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #29

Says anonymous DU poster, lol. morningfog Jul 2015 #71

Aren't you an anonymous DU poster as well? sheshe2 Jul 2015 #76

Why wouldn't she show? nt. NCTraveler Jul 2015 #37

Good question. morningfog Jul 2015 #46

I didn't ask the question nor do I think it is a good one. NCTraveler Jul 2015 #47

I have nothing to predict. morningfog Jul 2015 #48

Obama didn't win any primary debates JI7 Jul 2015 #64

done winning? virtualobserver Jul 2015 #52

Glad you've dropped the pretense and have segued to unabashed Clinton rather than Clinton as a TheKentuckian Jul 2015 #19

As I said, I like the guy, but this is how I see it playing out. RandySF Jul 2015 #34

First, HRC fans gave up NH, then IA, then.... aikoaiko Jul 2015 #26

They're foaming the runways for those losses. frylock Jul 2015 #72

You're the first person to actually name states that Bernie might win Renew Deal Jul 2015 #28

I should have mentioned Colorado. RandySF Jul 2015 #35

I've posted lists a few times. ieoeja Jul 2015 #49

People posting such 'excellent' clairvoyance PLEASE PUT UP SPOILER ALERTS!!!!!! HereSince1628 Jul 2015 #30

Well fuck. 99Forever Jul 2015 #31

Thank you, Nostradamus. LWolf Jul 2015 #38

on vacation in a couple of weeks, can i get the weather in the north atlantic? restorefreedom Jul 2015 #40

can i get this weeks lottery numbers as well lame54 Jul 2015 #41

Oh yes! Rosa Luxemburg Jul 2015 #43

If only you had evidence to back it up! AgingAmerican Jul 2015 #45

Never had any confidence in prophets or bean counters before. nt edgineered Jul 2015 #50

History lesson tiredtoo Jul 2015 #53

Sanders may win everything but the South. He is very popular her in New Mexico Quixote1818 Jul 2015 #55

Look! It's Nostradamus! And he's got a Magic 8 Ball! HappyMe Jul 2015 #57

IMPORTANT NEW DU RULE!!! No predicting that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination! brooklynite Jul 2015 #58

speaking only for myself restorefreedom Jul 2015 #62

Don't apologize demwing Jul 2015 #63

Ah, someone with a crystal ball. GoneOffShore Jul 2015 #67

Keep telling yourself that. Blue_In_AK Jul 2015 #70

Just 2 months ago... ljm2002 Jul 2015 #78

Except - there's going to be a first, second, and third debate JustAnotherGen Jul 2015 #79

It's tough to call until we know for certain whether or not Biden is in MBplayer Jul 2015 #81