2016 Postmortem

OhZone

(3,216 posts)

89. Predictwise has her chances going up again today I think.

Reply to Gman (Original post)

Sun Jul 12, 2015, 03:36 PM

Jul 2015

86% probability of winning the nomination.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

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Survey of AFT members on 2016 election. [View all] Gman Jul 2015 OP

Too bad. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #1

accusations they made these numbers up in 3... 2... wyldwolf Jul 2015 #2

Or maybe the sound of crickets? rock Jul 2015 #13

look at the exchange below, starting with post #28 wyldwolf Jul 2015 #35

I stand corrected rock Jul 2015 #130

Already happened. zappaman Jul 2015 #19

So much for the conspiracy theories. The manufactured outrage was hilarious. stevenleser Jul 2015 #3

Wrong. Hoppy Jul 2015 #4

"Obama on steroids". Sounds great to me. JaneyVee Jul 2015 #6

yeah, I wouldn't complain. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #7

President Obama has been a transformational and consequential president. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #8

"Obama on steroids" would be awesome! zappaman Jul 2015 #21

Obama on steroids would be exactly what I want. Thanks, you made my day! stevenleser Jul 2015 #38

Actually, that would NOT be such a terribly bad thing. calimary Jul 2015 #111

Obama on steroids? Really? SCantiGOP Jul 2015 #114

Yeah, Wall Street in the White House would be great. Hoppy Jul 2015 #153

Obama on steroids? Sign me up (nt) Recursion Jul 2015 #166

Peter Hart DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #5

The irony is he also works for Bernie Sanders wyldwolf Jul 2015 #9

Because he's the dean of Democratic pollsters./NT DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #11

but some posters on a blog said they weren't polled bigtree Jul 2015 #10

+1 DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #12

they were not polled virtualobserver Jul 2015 #20

You expected Bernie Sanders' pollster to call over a million people. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #23

The AFT itself said they called a million people. madfloridian Jul 2015 #47

No we expect the truth from the teachers union. jwirr Jul 2015 #95

Pollsters use random samples. They don't call everybody. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #96

Even when they are speaking for the members? What exactly good is it to be a voting member jwirr Jul 2015 #105

They did two surveys DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #109

Since February. HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #157

that's the way polls work bigtree Jul 2015 #26

They didn't endorse Hillary until October of 2007 virtualobserver Jul 2015 #39

they did it because they already know the candidates bigtree Jul 2015 #53

it is just reality....they locked this down months earlier.... virtualobserver Jul 2015 #58

shocking bigtree Jul 2015 #61

not shocking, just par for the course... virtualobserver Jul 2015 #66

Do you think Sanders will make up 48 points Gman Jul 2015 #76

he just has to get within striking distance virtualobserver Jul 2015 #82

No, he can't and won't make up 48 points in AFT Gman Jul 2015 #83

I know you are but what am I? virtualobserver Jul 2015 #87

Don't mean to be rude Gman Jul 2015 #91

I didn't perceive your post as rude. virtualobserver Jul 2015 #103

It may well have been Gman Jul 2015 #110

If you have to attack a poll to support your candidate, your candidate is in a bad place. nt stevenleser Jul 2015 #40

It is the timing, in 2007 they did not endorse until October virtualobserver Jul 2015 #46

FIXED DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #55

Even better. nt stevenleser Jul 2015 #57

The backroom manipulation, not so good virtualobserver Jul 2015 #72

If you have to take a poll earlier than the norm, YOUR candidate is in a bad place fed-up Jul 2015 #165

Do you happen to have a link to that? It is interesting it came early but I'm not Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #56

I hope that he gets the votes, too virtualobserver Jul 2015 #115

I have many concerns aboout Common Core and the private charter schools with Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #121

Exactly. This was a small sample. The teachers who were not polled a the ones who do not like jwirr Jul 2015 #93

press release in 2012 was done on Feb 7th, w/months of surveys fed-up Jul 2015 #14

The survey was completed on 6/30/15 DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #15

you 'smell a rat' because Bernie Sanders lost the endorsement. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #16

Precisely! n/t BooScout Jul 2015 #41

Probably best for Bernie supporters to just let this go LordGlenconner Jul 2015 #17

That would seem to be the sane course./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #18

Good luck with that. zappaman Jul 2015 #22

"Better to be strong and wrong..." DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #24

This is a preview of the primaries LordGlenconner Jul 2015 #45

Yeah. This is the smaller of the teachers' unions, the more conservative one. Comrade Grumpy Jul 2015 #25

ooh! new strawman bigtree Jul 2015 #27

"I'll be curious to see what the NEA, which has four times the membership of the AFT." DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #29

Where are the detailed poll results? HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #28

Who conducted the poll? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #30

That's a list of clients. HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #32

You must have missed this part DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #34

Well... wyldwolf Jul 2015 #37

Now, posters are upset that they used a random sample instead of calling all 1,600,000 members... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #44

And circulating a petition at change.org for AFT to withdraw the endorsement wyldwolf Jul 2015 #50

This should make for great theater./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #51

Statistically, over 1,000,000 members support Hillary Gman Jul 2015 #81

That's exactly the problem -- 'random' isn't always representative of rank and file. ancianita Jul 2015 #104

Random=everybody in the universe that is measured has the same chance of being polled. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #128

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2015 #119

The MOE is 4.1% DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #123

If you had clicked on the link in the OP Gman Jul 2015 #78

I think you just won GD:P for the day Number23 Jul 2015 #141

Please hang around, pardner, there might be a couple more./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #143

it's all a conspiracy against Bernie! bigtree Jul 2015 #31

In response to this endorsement: LWolf Jul 2015 #33

They say they phone-polled a million people. That's a huge undertaking. madfloridian Jul 2015 #36

THE NEA has nearly 1,600,000 members... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #42

I did not expect any group to call a million members at all. madfloridian Jul 2015 #43

How can it be Bernie's pollster if Hart works for other people aspirant Jul 2015 #59

What part of a random sample don't you understand? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #60

Let me help you aspirant Jul 2015 #134

DNA is based on inferential statistics DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #140

Dna is verifiable with 1 person aspirant Jul 2015 #146

Please do not make demands and insult me when I have been nothing but civil to you... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #147

Truth is not an insult or demanding aspirant Jul 2015 #149

DNA is based on inferential statistic not descriptive statistics (REDUX) DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #151

Now it's truth time aspirant Jul 2015 #158

"Truth crushed to earth will rise again."-Martin Luther King, Jr, DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #164

^ here's another example of how some people don't understand the scientific polling process wyldwolf Jul 2015 #63

Would you suggest that Senator Sanders fire Peter Hart and have another pollster conduct a new poll? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #65

Why would I suggest that? wyldwolf Jul 2015 #70

I can't think of a reason why but if Senator Sanders doubts the veracity of his own pollster... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #71

How many other pollsters has Bernie contracted with? aspirant Jul 2015 #161

Does he have a poll pending with Hart aspirant Jul 2015 #133

I don't know. Here is Peter Hart's contact information: DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #142

How do you suggest he "fire Hart" aspirant Jul 2015 #150

I don't want anybody to fire anybody and deprive a person of his livelihood or even a portion of it. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #152

Your Quotes aspirant Jul 2015 #163

"have another pollster conduct a new poll" aspirant Jul 2015 #160

wow-so they did outreach beginning in Feb before Bernie declared he was running at the end of April fed-up Jul 2015 #48

Do you like Hillary or this guy you haven't heard of? n/t virtualobserver Jul 2015 #49

Ahh, "name recognition", got it, thank you./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #54

When you are running against Ms. Name Recognition.... virtualobserver Jul 2015 #75

I missed the February part. Very interesting. Polling since February. madfloridian Jul 2015 #62

Good. Nice to finally have at least an inkling of an answer to the concerns brought up. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #52

it's more evidence of support than critics have produced bigtree Jul 2015 #64

You're evading. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #68

I'll take this poll over the baseless accusations of Sanders supporters here any day bigtree Jul 2015 #69

Uh... SoapBox Jul 2015 #73

I'm not a 'Hillary supporter' bigtree Jul 2015 #79

The guy polled for Hubert Humphrey and Ted Kennedy... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #74

It's not an accusation to ask questions about polling procedure Scootaloo Jul 2015 #77

this is just another self-serving, sour grapes defense of Sanders bigtree Jul 2015 #80

The real evidence is right there, Bigtree Scootaloo Jul 2015 #98

it's one more poll than you have bigtree Jul 2015 #107

Correction: You know what 0.07% of the union supports. Same as I do. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #108

that's some really dirt-dumb analysis of the polling bigtree Jul 2015 #112

I am loathe to get in this discussion... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #116

no. I've asked that the poster do his own learning on methadology bigtree Jul 2015 #120

Smarter than your belief that math is an anti-Clinton conspiracy Scootaloo Jul 2015 #118

ah, obtuse bigtree Jul 2015 #122

Anymore insults you want to throw out there, Bigtree? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #124

I thought this pathetic political effort of yours to defend Sanders was a source of pride bigtree Jul 2015 #129

I'm not hurt. It was an honest question. Do you have any more insults you want to squeeze out? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #131

the way I see this effort of yours on this thread? bigtree Jul 2015 #135

"Rabid anti-hillaryism"? "Cravenness?" Scootaloo Jul 2015 #148

I don't get the glee being exalted here, claiming a conspiracy theory has been hatched Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #102

Here is where the AFT says it called over 1 million members. historylovr Jul 2015 #155

Thank you. I had not seen that so I wondered if they were suggesting the info was Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #159

It certainly is. historylovr Jul 2015 #162

"1,150 AFT members who are registered to vote" riversedge Jul 2015 #67

timing and name recognition daybranch Jul 2015 #84

The only thing that will make AFT change their endorsement Gman Jul 2015 #86

Is it possible that Hillary received more endorsements because more teachers are women? BlueJazz Jul 2015 #85

Give them more credit than that Gman Jul 2015 #88

I figured that but with my background, the question had to be asked. I certainly have.. BlueJazz Jul 2015 #92

If that were true, would you suggest their votes count as 3/4 of a vote? wyldwolf Jul 2015 #90

Of course not. If the polled were Fire-Fighters and the results were the opposite,... BlueJazz Jul 2015 #97

sure. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #100

! I don't think you believe me but my intentions are Honorable, I'll vote for either of the 3. BlueJazz Jul 2015 #106

Predictwise has her chances going up again today I think. OhZone Jul 2015 #89

Sanders is well aware he has virtually no chance. Gman Jul 2015 #94

I follow it too and for sports as well... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #99

Kick & Recommended. William769 Jul 2015 #101

All this is rather intriguing sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #113

Read the info at the link Gman Jul 2015 #117

Well, I was referring to the link sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #127

this shows why unions are dying Robbins Jul 2015 #125

Would like to see Unions accomplish anything without corporations. The mom amd pop Hoyt Jul 2015 #144

Things that happened with the NLRB under Obama Gman Jul 2015 #145

This is not about votes, not about sour grapes. It goes much deeper. madfloridian Jul 2015 #126

Yes, but you see if you read sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #132

Yea, but if members ask questions and such, they're perpetuating a conspiracy sour grapes thingie. Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #136

That was stunning. What could they have possibly asked in February? madfloridian Jul 2015 #137

Let me speculate,that the sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #138

K&R I don't have a dog in this fight either way but facts are good Number23 Jul 2015 #139

Hmmm HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #154

Nothing to see here Gman Jul 2015 #156