2016 Postmortem

bigtree

(93,307 posts)

112. that's some really dirt-dumb analysis of the polling

Sun Jul 12, 2015, 04:05 PM

Jul 2015

...I'll just leave it to you to learn what the poll's methodology actually represents.

here's where your entire nonsense falls apart:

The AFT has conducted a long, deliberative process to assess which candidate would best champion the issues of importance to our members, their families and communities. (1) Members have been engaged online, (2) through the "You Decide" website, (3) through several telephone town halls, (4) and through multiple surveys—reaching more than 1 million members.

(5) **Additionally**, over the past few weeks, the AFT has conducted a scientific poll of our membership on the candidates and key issues. The top issues members raised were jobs and the economy and public education. Seventy-nine percent of our members who vote in Democratic primaries said we should endorse a candidate. And by more than a 3-to-1 margin, these members said the AFT should endorse Clinton.

http://www.aft.org/press-release/american-federation-teachers-endorses-hillary-clinton-president#sthash.spDZtkcd.dpuf

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Survey of AFT members on 2016 election. [View all] Gman Jul 2015 OP

Too bad. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #1

accusations they made these numbers up in 3... 2... wyldwolf Jul 2015 #2

Or maybe the sound of crickets? rock Jul 2015 #13

look at the exchange below, starting with post #28 wyldwolf Jul 2015 #35

I stand corrected rock Jul 2015 #130

Already happened. zappaman Jul 2015 #19

So much for the conspiracy theories. The manufactured outrage was hilarious. stevenleser Jul 2015 #3

Wrong. Hoppy Jul 2015 #4

"Obama on steroids". Sounds great to me. JaneyVee Jul 2015 #6

yeah, I wouldn't complain. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #7

President Obama has been a transformational and consequential president. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #8

"Obama on steroids" would be awesome! zappaman Jul 2015 #21

Obama on steroids would be exactly what I want. Thanks, you made my day! stevenleser Jul 2015 #38

Actually, that would NOT be such a terribly bad thing. calimary Jul 2015 #111

Obama on steroids? Really? SCantiGOP Jul 2015 #114

Yeah, Wall Street in the White House would be great. Hoppy Jul 2015 #153

Obama on steroids? Sign me up (nt) Recursion Jul 2015 #166

Peter Hart DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #5

The irony is he also works for Bernie Sanders wyldwolf Jul 2015 #9

Because he's the dean of Democratic pollsters./NT DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #11

but some posters on a blog said they weren't polled bigtree Jul 2015 #10

+1 DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #12

they were not polled virtualobserver Jul 2015 #20

You expected Bernie Sanders' pollster to call over a million people. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #23

The AFT itself said they called a million people. madfloridian Jul 2015 #47

No we expect the truth from the teachers union. jwirr Jul 2015 #95

Pollsters use random samples. They don't call everybody. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #96

Even when they are speaking for the members? What exactly good is it to be a voting member jwirr Jul 2015 #105

They did two surveys DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #109

Since February. HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #157

that's the way polls work bigtree Jul 2015 #26

They didn't endorse Hillary until October of 2007 virtualobserver Jul 2015 #39

they did it because they already know the candidates bigtree Jul 2015 #53

it is just reality....they locked this down months earlier.... virtualobserver Jul 2015 #58

shocking bigtree Jul 2015 #61

not shocking, just par for the course... virtualobserver Jul 2015 #66

Do you think Sanders will make up 48 points Gman Jul 2015 #76

he just has to get within striking distance virtualobserver Jul 2015 #82

No, he can't and won't make up 48 points in AFT Gman Jul 2015 #83

I know you are but what am I? virtualobserver Jul 2015 #87

Don't mean to be rude Gman Jul 2015 #91

I didn't perceive your post as rude. virtualobserver Jul 2015 #103

It may well have been Gman Jul 2015 #110

If you have to attack a poll to support your candidate, your candidate is in a bad place. nt stevenleser Jul 2015 #40

It is the timing, in 2007 they did not endorse until October virtualobserver Jul 2015 #46

FIXED DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #55

Even better. nt stevenleser Jul 2015 #57

The backroom manipulation, not so good virtualobserver Jul 2015 #72

If you have to take a poll earlier than the norm, YOUR candidate is in a bad place fed-up Jul 2015 #165

Do you happen to have a link to that? It is interesting it came early but I'm not Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #56

I hope that he gets the votes, too virtualobserver Jul 2015 #115

I have many concerns aboout Common Core and the private charter schools with Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #121

Exactly. This was a small sample. The teachers who were not polled a the ones who do not like jwirr Jul 2015 #93

press release in 2012 was done on Feb 7th, w/months of surveys fed-up Jul 2015 #14

The survey was completed on 6/30/15 DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #15

you 'smell a rat' because Bernie Sanders lost the endorsement. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #16

Precisely! n/t BooScout Jul 2015 #41

Probably best for Bernie supporters to just let this go LordGlenconner Jul 2015 #17

That would seem to be the sane course./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #18

Good luck with that. zappaman Jul 2015 #22

"Better to be strong and wrong..." DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #24

This is a preview of the primaries LordGlenconner Jul 2015 #45

Yeah. This is the smaller of the teachers' unions, the more conservative one. Comrade Grumpy Jul 2015 #25

ooh! new strawman bigtree Jul 2015 #27

"I'll be curious to see what the NEA, which has four times the membership of the AFT." DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #29

Where are the detailed poll results? HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #28

Who conducted the poll? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #30

That's a list of clients. HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #32

You must have missed this part DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #34

Well... wyldwolf Jul 2015 #37

Now, posters are upset that they used a random sample instead of calling all 1,600,000 members... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #44

And circulating a petition at change.org for AFT to withdraw the endorsement wyldwolf Jul 2015 #50

This should make for great theater./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #51

Statistically, over 1,000,000 members support Hillary Gman Jul 2015 #81

That's exactly the problem -- 'random' isn't always representative of rank and file. ancianita Jul 2015 #104

Random=everybody in the universe that is measured has the same chance of being polled. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #128

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2015 #119

The MOE is 4.1% DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #123

If you had clicked on the link in the OP Gman Jul 2015 #78

I think you just won GD:P for the day Number23 Jul 2015 #141

Please hang around, pardner, there might be a couple more./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #143

it's all a conspiracy against Bernie! bigtree Jul 2015 #31

In response to this endorsement: LWolf Jul 2015 #33

They say they phone-polled a million people. That's a huge undertaking. madfloridian Jul 2015 #36

THE NEA has nearly 1,600,000 members... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #42

I did not expect any group to call a million members at all. madfloridian Jul 2015 #43

How can it be Bernie's pollster if Hart works for other people aspirant Jul 2015 #59

What part of a random sample don't you understand? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #60

Let me help you aspirant Jul 2015 #134

DNA is based on inferential statistics DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #140

Dna is verifiable with 1 person aspirant Jul 2015 #146

Please do not make demands and insult me when I have been nothing but civil to you... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #147

Truth is not an insult or demanding aspirant Jul 2015 #149

DNA is based on inferential statistic not descriptive statistics (REDUX) DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #151

Now it's truth time aspirant Jul 2015 #158

"Truth crushed to earth will rise again."-Martin Luther King, Jr, DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #164

^ here's another example of how some people don't understand the scientific polling process wyldwolf Jul 2015 #63

Would you suggest that Senator Sanders fire Peter Hart and have another pollster conduct a new poll? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #65

Why would I suggest that? wyldwolf Jul 2015 #70

I can't think of a reason why but if Senator Sanders doubts the veracity of his own pollster... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #71

How many other pollsters has Bernie contracted with? aspirant Jul 2015 #161

Does he have a poll pending with Hart aspirant Jul 2015 #133

I don't know. Here is Peter Hart's contact information: DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #142

How do you suggest he "fire Hart" aspirant Jul 2015 #150

I don't want anybody to fire anybody and deprive a person of his livelihood or even a portion of it. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #152

Your Quotes aspirant Jul 2015 #163

"have another pollster conduct a new poll" aspirant Jul 2015 #160

wow-so they did outreach beginning in Feb before Bernie declared he was running at the end of April fed-up Jul 2015 #48

Do you like Hillary or this guy you haven't heard of? n/t virtualobserver Jul 2015 #49

Ahh, "name recognition", got it, thank you./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #54

When you are running against Ms. Name Recognition.... virtualobserver Jul 2015 #75

I missed the February part. Very interesting. Polling since February. madfloridian Jul 2015 #62

Good. Nice to finally have at least an inkling of an answer to the concerns brought up. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #52

it's more evidence of support than critics have produced bigtree Jul 2015 #64

You're evading. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #68

I'll take this poll over the baseless accusations of Sanders supporters here any day bigtree Jul 2015 #69

Uh... SoapBox Jul 2015 #73

I'm not a 'Hillary supporter' bigtree Jul 2015 #79

The guy polled for Hubert Humphrey and Ted Kennedy... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #74

It's not an accusation to ask questions about polling procedure Scootaloo Jul 2015 #77

this is just another self-serving, sour grapes defense of Sanders bigtree Jul 2015 #80

The real evidence is right there, Bigtree Scootaloo Jul 2015 #98

it's one more poll than you have bigtree Jul 2015 #107

Correction: You know what 0.07% of the union supports. Same as I do. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #108

that's some really dirt-dumb analysis of the polling bigtree Jul 2015 #112

I am loathe to get in this discussion... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #116

no. I've asked that the poster do his own learning on methadology bigtree Jul 2015 #120

Smarter than your belief that math is an anti-Clinton conspiracy Scootaloo Jul 2015 #118

ah, obtuse bigtree Jul 2015 #122

Anymore insults you want to throw out there, Bigtree? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #124

I thought this pathetic political effort of yours to defend Sanders was a source of pride bigtree Jul 2015 #129

I'm not hurt. It was an honest question. Do you have any more insults you want to squeeze out? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #131

the way I see this effort of yours on this thread? bigtree Jul 2015 #135

"Rabid anti-hillaryism"? "Cravenness?" Scootaloo Jul 2015 #148

I don't get the glee being exalted here, claiming a conspiracy theory has been hatched Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #102

Here is where the AFT says it called over 1 million members. historylovr Jul 2015 #155

Thank you. I had not seen that so I wondered if they were suggesting the info was Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #159

It certainly is. historylovr Jul 2015 #162

"1,150 AFT members who are registered to vote" riversedge Jul 2015 #67

timing and name recognition daybranch Jul 2015 #84

The only thing that will make AFT change their endorsement Gman Jul 2015 #86

Is it possible that Hillary received more endorsements because more teachers are women? BlueJazz Jul 2015 #85

Give them more credit than that Gman Jul 2015 #88

I figured that but with my background, the question had to be asked. I certainly have.. BlueJazz Jul 2015 #92

If that were true, would you suggest their votes count as 3/4 of a vote? wyldwolf Jul 2015 #90

Of course not. If the polled were Fire-Fighters and the results were the opposite,... BlueJazz Jul 2015 #97

sure. wyldwolf Jul 2015 #100

! I don't think you believe me but my intentions are Honorable, I'll vote for either of the 3. BlueJazz Jul 2015 #106

Predictwise has her chances going up again today I think. OhZone Jul 2015 #89

Sanders is well aware he has virtually no chance. Gman Jul 2015 #94

I follow it too and for sports as well... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #99

Kick & Recommended. William769 Jul 2015 #101

All this is rather intriguing sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #113

Read the info at the link Gman Jul 2015 #117

Well, I was referring to the link sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #127

this shows why unions are dying Robbins Jul 2015 #125

Would like to see Unions accomplish anything without corporations. The mom amd pop Hoyt Jul 2015 #144

Things that happened with the NLRB under Obama Gman Jul 2015 #145

This is not about votes, not about sour grapes. It goes much deeper. madfloridian Jul 2015 #126

Yes, but you see if you read sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #132

Yea, but if members ask questions and such, they're perpetuating a conspiracy sour grapes thingie. Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #136

That was stunning. What could they have possibly asked in February? madfloridian Jul 2015 #137

Let me speculate,that the sadoldgirl Jul 2015 #138

K&R I don't have a dog in this fight either way but facts are good Number23 Jul 2015 #139

Hmmm HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #154

Nothing to see here Gman Jul 2015 #156